Iran War Puts India at Crossroads as Eastern Axis Revives

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As Trump’s America turns inward and Europe scrambles for strategic autonomy, geopolitics analyst Manish Anand argues that the post-Iran world order is quietly reshaping itself — and India is only now beginning to move at the pace the moment demands.

By TRH Op-Ed Desk

New Delhi, April 3, 2026 — The world of 2026 looks nothing like the one that was anticipated two years ago. Geopolitics is moving at a speed that is outrunning the policy frameworks of even the most experienced capitals. And India, according to geopolitics analyst Manish Anand, is at a pivotal inflection point — one that carries genuine risk but also, if seized correctly, a historic opportunity.

Speaking in a monologue for The Raisina Hills, Anand laid out a sweeping assessment of where India stands as the Iran war reshapes global alignments, America’s unipolar moment visibly fades, and the Eastern Axis — India, China, Russia — shows signs of quiet revival.

The Eastern Axis: signs of revival

The signals, Anand argued, are already visible for those paying attention. Russia’s Defence top ministers were in Delhi. India-Russia consultations are intensifying. And India has appointed Vikram K. Doraiswami — described as one of its most experienced and nuanced diplomats — as its new ambassador to China.

The appointment has been welcomed warmly in Beijing. China’s state-run Global Times devoted a special feature to it, calling the posting a significant development. In diplomatic circles, Anand said, the expectation is growing that India-China ties are entering a phase of genuine normalisation.

“The closeness being built between India and Russia and between India and China indicates that in the post-American world order — the geopolitics of 2026 — India has started taking steps,” Anand said.

He noted that after nearly four years of eyeball-to-eyeball military standoff following the Galwan clash, the two countries have resumed direct air connectivity and their leaderships have met. The ice, however slowly, is thawing.

This connects to a longer diplomatic aspiration. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in China, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had explicitly called for the revival of the RIC — Russia, India, China — summit format, which had operated annually before the India-China border tensions effectively froze it.

“That Eastern Axis,” Anand said, “appears to be reviving.”

The critique of India’s strategic delay

Anand did not spare India’s foreign policy establishment from criticism. He acknowledged the argument made by Modi government critics — that New Delhi was too slow to read the room on Trumpism and recalibrate accordingly.

“Those who criticise say: you were late in understanding geopolitics. You were late in adopting the isolationist approach that defines Trump’s presidency. You hoped that the Trump presidency would bring India and America even closer — and that India would benefit diplomatically, economically, and in defence,” he said.

The deeper miscalculation, in Anand’s view, was a failure to decode what Trumpism actually represents. “America First is anti-China — but it can also be anti-India,” he said. “America does not want any country to rise to China’s level on the global stage and challenge its economy. India is already the world’s fourth-largest economy. It will become the third very soon. America does not want that either.”

The implication: proximity to Trump’s Washington was never going to be a reliable long-term strategic asset for a country that aspires to great power status.

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Europe’s drift away from America — and what it means

Anand widened the frame to Europe, where he observed that anti-American sentiment is no longer confined to the political margins. In Germany, right-wing voices are calling for the removal of American military and nuclear bases from German soil and for defence self-sufficiency independent of Washington. Similar currents, he noted, are running through France, Britain, Sweden, and Spain.

“Western Europe is showing restlessness — a desire to be free from American dominance and to achieve autonomy in foreign policy and security,” Anand said. “They have understood that Trump has no real interest in ending the Ukraine war, and that Europe must manage its own problems.”

The strategic lesson for India is clear in his framing: a foreign policy that leans too heavily on any single power — particularly a power that is reconfiguring its global commitments — is a liability.

The Iran war: crisis and opportunity simultaneously

The Iran conflict, Anand argued, is the most consequential variable in the current geopolitical moment — and its implications for India are double-edged.

On the risk side, India’s economy is deeply integrated with the Middle East. Any prolonged conflict in the region translates directly into higher energy costs, disrupted trade, and economic pain for ordinary Indians. “The war in Iran is directly hurting India’s interests,” Anand said. He also questioned the legitimacy of the conflict’s origins, suggesting that no meaningful provocation from Iran preceded American involvement and that the conditions for war were, in effect, manufactured.

On the opportunity side, however, Anand sees a post-Iran order that could substantially benefit India’s strategic position. Iran, he argued, will emerge from this conflict as a power that has demonstrated remarkable resilience — and India’s ties with Iran are deep and longstanding. A strengthened Iran that is aligned with the Eastern Axis represents a different kind of neighbourhood than the one that existed before.

More broadly, as American military credibility is tested and European dependence on Washington frays, smaller and poorer nations — in Africa and across Asia — will increasingly look toward China, Russia, and India for partnership, trade, and security architecture.

“The rise of the East, which diplomatic circles have spoken about for many years, now appears to be genuinely proving itself,” Anand said. “Because America’s economy has peaked. It is consumption-driven, import-dependent, and short on skilled manpower. The Iran war will further strain its military bandwidth. If Europe simultaneously reduces its dependence on American defence, the impact on America’s defence industry will be enormous — and that creates new opportunities for countries like India and China.”

The question India must answer

Anand closed with the challenge that underpins everything else. The opportunity is real. The window may be significant. But whether India can move quickly and decisively enough to claim it remains open.

“The Iran war is a challenge for India,” he said. “But it can also be a great opportunity. The question is: how capable will India be of seizing that opportunity?”