Israel’s election night: a late Likud surge narrows the gap, but nobody has 61

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By TRH World Desk

New Delhi, October 28, 2026 — Israel’s election night has been a story of reversals. The numbers moving between the evening’s first exit polls and the early-morning updates were large enough to change the story, but not large enough to produce a governing majority.

Ynet reported that the first exit polls, released at 10 pm, gave the Eisenkot-led bloc 52 seats to Netanyahu’s 50, with the Arab parties on 18. The Times of Israel described the initial picture as punishment for the outgoing coalition. By the early hours, the picture had changed. Channel 12’s latest update showed Netanyahu’s bloc at 52 seats and Eisenkot’s at 49, with the Arab parties at 19. Ynet said Likud gained three seats to reach 27, while Kan 11 showed the two blocs tied at 51 each. Thus, Netanyahu-led camp leads with three seats ahead of the Zionist opposition and the overall opposition, including Arab parties, falling from 70 to 68.

Likud officials expect 55 to 57 seats, and Netanyahu won most of the Jewish vote, per Nadav Eyal on X. On the Jewish vote, Haaretz reported Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar hailing a “clear Jewish majority” after the exit polls. Channel 14, strongly pro-Netanyahu, had him at 60 seats, an outlier against the other networks. Exit polls are not official results, and the Central Elections Committee had counted only a small share of ballots when Haaretz last updated.

Even Likud’s best-case 55 to 57 leaves Netanyahu short of 61. The opposite is equally true. The Times of Israel notes that the Jewish-led opposition cannot reach a majority without Arab-led parties, whose 18 or 19 seats would be unprecedented, unless the opposition’s leaders break campaign promises against partnership. At the same time, those Arab parties also oppose another Netanyahu term, which is how analysts count a bloc of 68 or 69 against him.

The scenarios

– Netanyahu falls short: if the count holds near 52, he has no obvious path to 61.

– Opposition falls short: Eisenkot’s side lacks a majority unless it relies on Arab parties’ support or recruits defectors.

– Stalemate: Eisenkot told Netanyahu not to use Israel’s security for political gain and warned that calling another election would be a mistake.

Turnout was historic, with 77.7 per cent of eligible voters casting ballots, the highest since 1999. The night proved that polls underestimated Likud’s strength and overestimated the opposition’s. It did not produce a winner. Watch the official count, the treatment of absentee and soldiers’ ballots, and any move toward coalition talks. Until then, spin will fill the gap that results leave open.

(Counting continues, and figures may change.)