How India’s Refineries Are Refining US Ties as Trump Seeks a China Hedge

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By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

With China supercharging gains from the post-Covid global supply chains domination and war spinoffs, the US, per a section of commentators, reluctantly seems inclined to seek a hedge from New Delhi

New Delhi, October 21, 2026 — A Day after his joint meeting with Indian and the UAE foreign affairs ministers — Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and AB Zayed, US Secretary of the State Marco Rubio is flying to Jamnagar in Gujarat. Reliance Industries leadership will host Rubio at the world’s largest petrochemical refining facility. In fast-changing geopolitical equations, refining capability seems to have come forth as a pivot and India appears to have gained the American attention for a possible Trumpian hedge.

Rubio has been unequivocal in his mission on visit to India. In his discussion with Jaishankar, Rubio raised the business of oil to the centre stage of the bilateral relations. Rubio argued that India’s refining capability can work with the Venezuelan crude oil.

For context, it may be recalled that the Reliance Industries has committed to set up a large refining complex in the US. It also should be recalled that US President Donald Trump had called a meeting of American oil czars after he had ordered the “arrest” of then Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in January this year. The American press had reported, by and large, disinterest from the American oil firms to partake in the Venezuelan oil wells.

Yet oil remains top American concerns and Trump clearly wants India to come to the rescue at a time when his rankings have hit the rock bottom ahead of the Mid-Term next month. A Reuters poll pegged Trump endorsement at under 30 percent, lowest for any incumbent president in decades.

Rubio in his media interviews in Mumbai called “India a refining superpower.” South Korean geopolitical analyst Kyunghoon Kim wrote on X: “India is the world’s fourth-largest refining nation, accounting for 4.7% of global capacity in 2025. Damage to refineries in Russia and the Middle East could further strengthen its position.”

“India wasn’t always a refining superpower. It ranked around 20th or lower until the mid-1990s. Economic liberalisation spurred investment and boom! India entered the top 10 in 1999 and the top five in 2006,” he further added.

Since the Ukraine War broke out, Indian refineries, largely have come to the rescue of the western world. Yet India has also faced scrutiny from Europe and the US for buying Russian oil.

In a geopolitical turnaround, Rubio is now seeking out the same Indian refining capabilities. His two interviews, one for the broadcast and another for the print, also seem aimed at addressing the Indian popular perceptions about the US in Trump’s second term.

Rubio’s argument that the US relations with Pakistan are borne out of necessity, as much as India maintains ties with Iran. Trump’s anti-irrigation measures and tariffs were also not aimed at India, per Rubio.

Rubio indeed conveys Trumpian urgency for a quick fix to his compounding challenges. The Republicans are largely expected to lose majorly in the Mid-Term. This likelihood will also send Democrats on an upswing for the 2028 Presidential elections. Rubio is among the lead contenders for the Republican defence of the presidency.

With China supercharging gains from the post-Covid global supply chains domination and war spinoffs, the US, per a section of commentators, reluctantly seems inclined to seek a hedge from New Delhi. That hedge is nothing new. It existed in Trump’s first term, from 2016-20.