BJP’s Mission South Falters: Party Faces Bleak Prospects

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As assembly election results approach, political analyst Manish Anand says BJP remains a marginal force across southern India despite years of outreach

By TRH Op-Ed Desk

New Delhi, April 27, 2026 — With results for assembly elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry set to be declared on May 4, the political spotlight is once again falling on the Bharatiya Janata Party’s long-cherished ambition to expand its footprint in southern India — an ambition that, according to observers, appears increasingly out of reach.

Political analyst Manish Anand, in a monologue for the YouTube channel of The Raisina Hills, delivered a blunt assessment of where the saffron party stands in the country’s south.

“If you set aside Goa, the BJP is virtually at zero across the entire south,” Anand said, adding: “Mission South, which the party launched with great fanfare in 2017, is heading towards becoming a super flop.”

A Mission Born in Confidence, Struggling in Reality

The BJP’s Mission South initiative was conceived during a period of peak political momentum for the party. Fresh off its historic 2014 majority, and riding what Anand describes as the “Brand Modi wave,” the party set an ambitious target: break into the traditionally Congress- and regional party-dominated southern states.

Nearly a decade on, the results have been underwhelming. The BJP governs Goa outright, but elsewhere in the south, its presence is either negligible or dependent on alliance partners.

In Andhra Pradesh, the party shares power as a junior partner in a coalition led by the Telugu Desam Party and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena. “Andhra Pradesh should not be seen as a BJP state,” Anand noted, adding: “The people gave their mandate to TDP and Pawan Kalyan — the BJP is in power there almost accidentally.”

In Telangana, where BJP had pinned considerable hopes ahead of the last assembly election, the party suffered a clear defeat. Karnataka, once a BJP stronghold, is now under Congress rule, with deep internal factionalism within the BJP making a comeback in 2028 appear unlikely.

Kerala and Tamil Nadu: Walls the BJP Cannot Breach

Ground reports from Kerala suggest Congress-led UDF is headed for a strong return to power — a result that would directly contradict Home Minister Amit Shah’s claim that the BJP could capture the state by crossing 32 percent vote share.

“Amit Shah had declared that with 32 percent votes, no one can stop BJP from forming the government in Kerala,” Anand said, adding: “If the current trends hold, that claim too will stand exposed.”

Tamil Nadu tells a similar story, despite sustained and creative outreach efforts. Prime Minister Modi has repeatedly praised the Tamil language in public addresses, referenced ancient Sangam literature in his speeches, and initiated the Kashi Tamil Sangam. Reports even suggested he was personally learning Tamil ahead of the 2024 general elections.

Yet the needle has barely moved. DMK’s grip over Tamil Nadu politics has only tightened, particularly following the death of J. Jayalalithaa and the subsequent split within the AIADMK. Key AIADMK leaders, including O. Panneerselvam, defected to the DMK ahead of these elections, further consolidating the ruling party’s position.

“The vacuum left by a weakened AIADMK has not been filled by anyone — not even the BJP,” Anand observed. He added that “even actor Vijay’s new party, which generated considerable buzz, was ultimately seen as entertainment rather than a serious political alternative.”

Delimitation, Women’s Reservation, and a Deeper Anxiety

Anand also connected BJP’s southern struggles to the controversial push around women’s reservation and the linked delimitation exercise. “The haste shown by the central government in trying to push delimitation under the cover of women’s reservation reflects a deeper anxiety,” he said. “The BJP leadership knows it has failed the Mission South test — it lacks the right faces, the right leadership, and a political philosophy that resonates with southern voters,” he added.

(Opinions expressed are those of Manish Anand.)