Who Will Win Bengal 2026? Exit Polls Show BJP Edge, Tight Race
TMC MP Abhishek Banerjee campaigns in Diamond Harbour (Image X.com)
Multiple exit polls indicate BJP gains in Bengal; Assam tilts NDA, Kerala leans UDF as high-stakes results awaited
By NIRENDRA DEV
Kolkata, April 30, 2026 — Most exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections indicate challenging terrain for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), even as projections remain sharply divided on the final outcome in West Bengal.
According to multiple agencies, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to make significant gains in the state. While some surveys predict a breakthrough for the BJP, others still give an edge to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Diverging Bengal Projections
Chanakya Strategies forecasts a saffron surge, projecting BJP at 150–160 seats and TMC at 130–140.
Matrize News predicts BJP winning 146–161 seats, with TMC at 130–140.
Poll Diary estimates TMC at 99–127 (below the 148 majority mark), while BJP could secure 142–171 seats.
ABP exit poll gives TMC 125–140 seats and BJP 146–161.
However, some projections differ. PMARQ suggests TMC could still emerge ahead with 118–138 seats, while BJP may reach 150–175.
If these projections hold, it would signal that the call for “poriborton” (change) has resonated with voters. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah repeatedly targeted the TMC government over corruption and infiltration issues during the campaign.
Assam and Kerala: Clearer Trends
In Assam, exit polls suggest a comfortable victory for the NDA:
Times Now projects BJP winning 88–101 seats.
Axis My India predicts an NDA tally of 88–100 in the 126-member Assembly, with Congress trailing at 24–36 seats.
Meanwhile, in Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is projected to return to power with 75–85 seats.
Ground Signals and Political Reactions
BJP leader Arjun Singh claimed that a “two-thirds majority” government is in the making, asserting that voters turned decisively against the TMC.
The elections also saw intense campaigning and high voter turnout. Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar noted that Phase I and II recorded the “highest-ever polling percentage in West Bengal since Independence.”
In Bhabanipur, a high-profile battleground, BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari claimed over 90% turnout, significantly higher than previous elections. The ECINet app reported a turnout of 91.62%, likely to rise further.
Campaign Undercurrents
The BJP’s campaign focused heavily on issues of corruption and alleged infiltration, shaping a strong narrative against the ruling party. Analysts suggest these themes may have influenced voter sentiment across sections.
On the other hand, Mamata Banerjee’s campaign leaned on regional identity with the “Ghorer Meye” (daughter of the soil) pitch. However, opposition leaders pointed to signs of nervousness in her campaign, citing her extensive booth visits and emotional appeals to voters.
Banerjee, meanwhile, accused central forces of bias, stating: “Central forces are supposed to guard the country’s borders, but instead they are working for a particular party.”
Her close aide Kunal Ghosh struck a defiant note, claiming TMC would win over 235 seats and BJP would remain below 50.
Around 700 companies of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) will remain deployed across West Bengal even after polling concludes, underscoring the tense political atmosphere.
With sharply divided exit polls, West Bengal remains too close to call. If BJP’s projected surge materialises, it could mark a historic shift similar to the 2011 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election, when the Left Front was ousted after decades in power.
The final verdict, however, will only be known on counting day
Q: Who is leading in West Bengal exit polls 2026?
Most exit polls show the BJP gaining significant ground in West Bengal, with several agencies projecting it ahead of the TMC, though the contest remains close.
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