Vijay’s TVK Shakes Tamil Nadu Politics, Hastens Realignment

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Political analyst Manish Anand says Vijay’s rise reflects a voter push for change, coalition balance, and the collapse of Tamil Nadu’s traditional political order.

By TRH Op-Ed Desk

New Delhi, May 9, 2026 — Tamil Nadu is on the cusp of a historic political transformation as actor-turned-politician Vijay prepares to take oath as Chief Minister, backed by a post-poll coalition commanding 120 seats in the 234-member state assembly — well above the 118-seat majority threshold.

“A new political sun is rising in Tamil Nadu,” declared Manish Anand, political analyst and host of The Raisina Hills YouTube channel, describing the development as one of the most significant shifts in South Indian politics in decades.

The Numbers That Clinched It

Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), won 108 seats outright in the assembly election. With Congress offering immediate support of its five MLAs, and additional smaller allies joining the post-poll alliance, the coalition’s tally climbed to 120 — giving it a comfortable working majority.

Anand noted that Congress moved decisively and without delay to announce its support for Vijay, a move that proved politically significant. “Congress was heavy over the BJP in Tamil Nadu,” Anand observed, pointing out that the grand old party denied the ruling BJP any foothold in the state’s new political equation.

Governor’s Role Under Scrutiny

The path to government formation was not without controversy. Anand highlighted that there was a two-day period of uncertainty — what he termed a “trauma” — during which questions swirled about whether the Governor would act swiftly to invite Vijay, the single-largest party leader, to form the government.

“In Manipur, Karnataka, or Maharashtra, parties without clear majorities were invited to form governments,” Anand pointed out, contrasting those episodes with the delay in Tamil Nadu. He noted that BJP organisational secretary B.L. Santhosh fuelled speculation with a social media post suggesting Congress would face embarrassment in the state — widely interpreted as signalling BJP’s interest in blocking Vijay’s path to power.

The Nepal Parallel

Anand drew a striking international comparison to explain what is unfolding in Tamil Nadu. He likened Vijay’s rise to that of Balen Shah in Nepal — a political outsider who became Mayor of Kathmandu before ascending to the top position, dismantling established parties along the way.

“The same kind of change that happened in Nepal under Balen Shah is now visible in Tamil Nadu’s politics,” Anand said, suggesting that if the “Vijay effect” proves durable, it could eventually signal a broader appetite for change in Indian national politics as well.

Why Voters Chose Change — But Not Completely

Anand offered a nuanced reading of the mandate. Voters were disillusioned with dynastic politics — DMK’s M.K. Stalin promoted his son Udhayanidhi Stalin, while AIADMK lost its ideological anchor after Jayalalithaa’s passing. Yet the electorate did not hand TVK a sweeping majority.

“The people showed great wisdom,” Anand said. “They understood that Vijay is new to politics, that this is his party’s first election. So they gave a mandate for a balanced coalition — so that experienced parties would join and help run the government well.”

The Left parties who joined the alliance reportedly extracted a commitment that the state’s existing pro-people welfare schemes would continue unchanged.

Congress Makes Gains, BJP Left Out

The outcome represents a rare win for Congress against BJP in a high-stakes state-level contest. With governments already in Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and now support for the incoming Tamil Nadu administration, the party is reclaiming ground it had lost across India’s south and west.

The Road Ahead

Anand cautioned that governing is a different test than campaigning. “Whether he becomes a superstar in governance — that will be seen in the next one to two years,” he said. But he added that if Vijay succeeds, his legacy could rival that of M.G. Ramachandran — the original matinee idol who became one of Tamil Nadu’s most celebrated Chief Ministers.

For now, Tamil Nadu’s voters have placed an extraordinary bet on a political newcomer — and the country is watching.

(Views attributed to Manish Anand, political analyst, from his monologue on The Raisina Hills YouTube channel.)