Nifty Below April 2025 Low as Bears Retake Control of Dalal Street

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Short build-up surges, RSI nears oversold territory, and a key bearish candlestick wipes out Tuesday’s recovery — analysts warn the primary downtrend may be resuming

By S. JHA

Mumbai, March 12, 2026 — Indian equity markets continue to be battered amid unravelling of the Middle East crisis. The Indian markets crashed on Wednesday. Indices are slated to open with deep cuts on Thursday amid weak global cues.

The Nifty50 plunged nearly 400 points to close at its lowest level since April 2025, erasing a brief recovery and signalling that bearish forces have firmly reasserted their grip on the index.

“The selloff was swift and decisive. After bulls managed a tentative bounce on Tuesday, Wednesday’s session saw a large bearish candlestick form on the daily chart — one that not only negated the previous day’s gains but also filled the bullish gap that had briefly offered hope of a sustained recovery,” said Angel One in a note shared with clients.

The broader market structure, analysts say, remains deeply fragile. The brokerage firm noted in its market analysis that the decline was both technically significant and structurally telling. According to Angel One: “Bears regained control with the formation of a large bearish candlestick, which also filled the bullish gap. The market is attempting to resume its primary downward trend.”

The index had earlier in the week broken below the critical 24,300 support zone — a level that served as a key floor last year and coincided with the 89-week exponential moving average. Tuesday’s bounce, rather than being a sign of genuine strength, now appears to have been a classic technical retest before trend continuation, a pattern well-documented in price action analysis.

“Momentum indicators are flashing warning signals. The Relative Strength Index slipped back near the 30 zone, pointing to strengthening bearish momentum and an absence of meaningful buying conviction,” added Angel One.

The lack of higher lows on the chart further confirms that the index has yet to find a stable base. “Derivatives data reinforced the bearish reading. Open interest rose over 7 per cent with volumes surpassing Tuesday’s total, pointing to fresh short positions entering the market — a textbook short build-up scenario that adds near-term downside risk,” added the Delhi-based brokerage firm.

For the upcoming weekly expiry, the highest open interest concentration sits at the 23,500 put and 24,300 call strikes, suggesting the market is likely to remain rangebound between these two levels in the short term.

Angel One advised caution, recommending that “traders avoid aggressive positioning and closely monitor global developments, as they are likely to dictate the near-term direction of the market.”

With the technical structure broken, momentum waning, and derivatives signalling fresh bearish bets, market participants will be watching global cues closely for any catalyst capable of reversing what increasingly looks like a resumption of the primary downtrend.

(Disclaimer: This article makes no recommendation for any kinds of trades in the markets.)