‘Bangladesh Is in a Whirlpool’: India May Be the Only Stabiliser Left

As violence targets Hindus and even Indian consulates, Bangladesh observer Nirendra Dev warns of mob rule, Islamist capture—and defends New Delhi’s calibrated restraint.

Bangladesh observer NIRENDRA DEV answers questions on situations in Bangladesh and the stand of India as violence targets minority Hindus and even target Indian consulates. Dev in an interview with MANISH ANAND argues that India’s stand is “mature.”

Qn. What future do you envisage for Muhammad Yunus after the 2026 February elections in Bangladesh?

Dev: It is difficult to answer this. It may appear a very simple question; but in today’s circumstances as we see things in Bangladesh today; none can answer this question.

Look here, Bangladesh is not only at a crossroads. It is actually in a complex whirlpool. Nobody is sure whether polls as announced will be really held or not. Secondly, nobody is sure whether Yunus himself or his interim regime really want the election to be held. Even the legitimacy of this government is in question.

Under whatever provisions they have for emergency or a national crisis, etc., elections were to be held within three months after August 8, 2004 when Yunus took over the charge. There is no constitutional sanctity to delay elections.

But they have done it.

Lately, a mob culture has been tolerated, given freehand and even instigated. Today the same mob has caught the interim regime of Yunus by its raw nerve … up at the throat.

Today, everyone in Bangladesh Knows its Jamaat who is running the government. How will it run if Jamaat comes to power after election; the present Yunus-led dispensation is the trailer for that.

If we say, Sheikh Hasina ran a fascist regime; today in all practical sense, the Yunus regime is also fascist regime just without Hasina. That’s it.

Qn. Do you think that Bangladesh is poised for a perennial bloodbath even after elections?

Dev: Bloodbath is a must if you allow the rule of the jungle and the law of the mobocracy on the street. There have been Bandhs, Rasta Roko and violence in Bangladesh since August 2024 in the name of protest against fake mobile business.

In more ways than one, East Pakistan is back. See the irony, mainstream Pakistan is a failed model. But that’s a model for Bangladesh today. The so-called July 2024 protest ideals have failed.

Qn: Why is the Bangladesh Army silent?

Dev: We must understand; how the July-August 2024 protest was just aimed at regime change. It was no revolution. See, essentially a revolution means—people’s support to mob violence against oppression.

This was there; but it all stopped there. Subsequently, no further changes related to any revolution took place.

The Yunus regime is continuing with the same babudom Hasina left. Hence that same “fascist hegemony” continues by default. The bureaucracy has found new ways to survive, and they are also teaching the new rulers, students and Yunus himself and his young team the tricks to continue in office. They have promised elections; but they have also banned Awami League and their supporters and cadres.

Mind you; Hasina used to hold elections and win about 40 percent votes. So, you want a historic election with 30 to 40 percent of people kept away.

Some of these finer points; the Indian government understands; but there is no understanding about the same amongst Indian media and commentators.

In Bangladesh, lately people are speaking out on this. This is somewhere leading to a situation which New Delhi’s foreign policy engine room understands, and they will have a vital role to play in future too.

In all this, we may be perplexed to find the Bangla army silent. The Army is modelled on two formats.

One, Hasina’s fascism and the other “The Munir model of Pakistanis.” Army is semi-corporate. It is in various kinds of non-combatant operations. It’s like a corporate honcho. There is debate on tenders.

It has intense involvement in running real estate to university administration, admission and education. So hardcore defence action is not priority. Moreover, the generals know things are in utter mess. So, why us…when there is Yunus to take the blame?

Qn:  What scope do you see of Pakistan plundering chaos in Bangladesh?

Dev: This goes without saying. Bangladesh has been trapped by the Deep State, radical Islam, Pak-revenge, India’s indifference and common people’s simplicity.

Lawlessness is thriving. The Yunus regime glorified mob as pressure groups like we talk about farmers lobbies and business chambers in India. Common people do not trust the police.

Hence free fair and inclusive election is miles away. There is a “business of bandh” today. There is a protest march on a daily basis. Economy has gone for a toss. Inflation is high and jobs have vanished.

See, what radicals and Pakistan’s influence has brought in. Some of the slogans like “We are for Sabhya Bangladesh” are heard. Does it mean, Bangladesh was uncivilized between 1971 and 2024? It has all hit at the roots of the Bangla Culture. That is a bigger crisis on cards. Nothing can be more pathetic.

Qn: In 1971, Mujib was opposed by almost 45% of Bangladesh voters, who were pro-Pakistan. How is Bangladesh’s identity crisis—Bengali or Muslims—playing out?

Dev: This is absolutely false. Such propaganda is being done by forces inimical to larger interests of Bangladesh and also India. This claim that “almost 45%” of the Bangladesh population was pro-Pakistan in 1971 is inaccurate.

The overwhelming majority of people in East Pakistan supported Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s Awami League and the independence movement. In the 1970 general election there was widespread participation.

Awami League won 160 out of 162 seats in East Pakistan’s provincial assembly and an absolute majority (167 out of 313 total seats) in the National Assembly of Pakistan. Mujib was elected Prime Minister of united Pakistan and see what followed after that.

Qn: What can India actually do—watch silently?

Dev: India is not silent. It is doing the right thing. The challenges that India faces today on the Bangladesh front means New Delhi should show mature diplomacy. That’s what they have been doing so far. No need for any adventurism or hyped use of lung power. This matured diplomacy is helping the cause of logic. Today, even BNP leaders say; in 1971 India certainly helped Bengalis in East Pakistan and it was due to India’s help that freedom came.

Some political parties may have complaints against India; that’s their right. But a realisation is dawning gradually that India is not only a big neighbour; India can actually give stability in the region. There is also an appreciation that India’s role in trade and economy can never be underestimated. New Delhi has to be extra cautious on security matters and till now things are in control.

Bangladesh: A Murder, and the Return of Radical Street Politics

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