Andy Burnham's Path to No. 10 Is Now Almost Unstoppable — But One Wild Card Remains

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By TRH World Desk

Darren Jones has cleared the biggest hurdle on Burnham’s road to Downing Street. Al Carns, the ex-defence minister with military steel and political fire, has not.

New Delhi, June 24, 2026 — Darren Jones has cleared the biggest hurdle on Burnham’s road to Downing Street. Al Carns, the ex-defence minister with military steel and political fire, has not.

The Labour leadership contest that most people expected never to happen is now all but over — before it has even officially begun. Darren Jones, the Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister and one of Keir Starmer’s closest allies in Cabinet, announced on Wednesday that he will not stand against Andy Burnham to succeed Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister.

The declaration, made in a Sky News interview with political editor Beth Rigby, lands as close to a coronation announcement as British politics permits. It removes the most credible rival Burnham faced — a minister who, by his own account, had secured the backing of enough MPs to mount a genuine challenge.

“Andy Burnham is going to be the next Prime Minister,” said Darren Jones.

Jones steps aside — but not without conditions

Jones framed his exit not as surrender but as strategic restraint. He told Sky News he had held a “reassuring” conversation with Burnham about economic policy and concluded that a full contest would not give the eventual winner enough time to prepare an autumn Budget. The maths, he argued, simply did not add up.

But his departure came wrapped in an unmistakable warning. He urged Burnham to set out his economic platform in detail — particularly for the “upwards of 100 MPs” who remained concerned or were, in Jones’s words, “feeling pretty depressed” since Starmer’s resignation on Sunday.

Jones also appeared to discourage Burnham from appointing Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as Chancellor, setting out a series of “tests” for whoever occupies No. 11, including the ability to reassure markets, trade unions, MPs, and the public, while not seeking to “control” the Prime Minister. Asked whether Miliband passes those tests, Jones gave a pointed non-answer: “I will let you mark those tests.”

The timeline: how we got here

Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Labour leader and Prime Minister on Sunday 22 June, following Burnham’s emphatic victory in the Makerfield by-election — a contest called specifically to give Burnham a parliamentary seat from which to mount a challenge. Wes Streeting, once tipped as a frontrunner himself, swiftly fell in behind Burnham on Monday.

Under party rules, nominations open on 9 July and close on 16 July. If no challenger secures the backing of at least 81 Labour MPs, Burnham could be confirmed as leader and Prime Minister at a special party conference on 17 July — potentially the fastest transition from resignation to No. 10 in modern British political history. Starmer has already authorised civil service “access talks” for leadership candidates.

Al Carns: the dark horse who won’t go away

Yet one figure continues to complicate the coronation narrative. Al Carns, the MP for Birmingham Selly Oak and former Royal Marines officer who resigned as Armed Forces Minister earlier this month over the Defence Investment Plan, has repeatedly refused to rule out standing against Burnham.

“Whoever wants to lead the country — tell me what you want it to be in 2029 and 2034. What’s the vision?” Al Carns told GB News.

Carns, 46, brings unusual credentials to the contest. He has 24 years of Royal Marines service, including multiple combat tours of Afghanistan and Iraq. His policy pitch includes prioritising energy security over net zero targets, a “hand-ups, not handouts” approach to welfare reform, and a more muscular defence posture. Whether those positions can attract 81 Labour MPs is another matter. His comments have also drawn criticism: former Blair adviser John McTernan accused him of “disgracefully smearing” victims of the Troubles over his stance on legacy legislation.

He told GB News he would wave the flag for Burnham — if the vision impressed him. “Give me the policy platform; give me the vision for the country, and if he has the inspiration, drive and courageous, bold nature to move this forward, then I will jump on the bandwagon and move hell for leather for him,” he said. His de facto ultimatum gives Burnham until his scheduled policy announcement next Tuesday.

The shape of a Burnham government is already coming into focus. Louise Haigh, Ed Miliband, Shabana Mahmood, and Wes Streeting have all been linked to Cabinet posts. James Purnell — a Blair-era minister who served alongside Burnham — is reportedly being considered for chief of staff, according to The Times. Crossbench economist Jim O’Neill, advising Burnham, has spoken to The Guardian about creating an independent fiscal body to enable greater public investment within existing fiscal rules.

For now, Andy Burnham stands on the threshold of Downing Street in a way few politicians of his generation could have imagined a year ago. The question is whether Al Carns — a man who has faced Taliban gunfire, Himalayan altitude, and Westminster scepticism in equal measure — has the political oxygen to mount a challenge before the window closes.