Iran Threat Could Spark ‘Catastrophic’ Gulf Conflict, Warns Analyst

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Hasan T. Alhasan says targeting infrastructure would be “illegal and illegitimate” as Gulf states weigh support for US-led coalition

By TRH World Desk

New Delhi, March 26, 2026 — Rising tensions around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could trigger a wider regional conflict, a geopolitical analyst has warned, following a controversial statement by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Speaking to CNN, Hasan T. Alhasan described the rhetoric as a dangerous escalation, cautioning that threats to target civilian infrastructure would amount to “war crimes” under international law.

“Well, the threat to begin with [is] to commit many war crimes because obviously it’s both illegal and illegitimate to target other countries’ vital national infrastructure, especially those that have no military purpose whatsoever,” Alhasan said. He added that the situation risks becoming a “no holds barred” confrontation, warning it would be “absolutely catastrophic for all of the parties involved,” with Gulf nations capable of retaliating in kind.

Alhasan suggested the rhetoric is aimed at deterring broader regional backing for a potential US-led effort to secure maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. “This is an attempt really to try and dissuade and deter broader regional participation and support for US-led efforts… to secure the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, noting that ongoing US-Iran talks could fail, raising the likelihood of escalation.

Countries like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have indicated willingness to support such a coalition, amid concerns over Iran potentially exerting unilateral control over the waterway. Bahrain is also pushing for action at the United Nations Security Council, including measures under Chapter VII of the UN Charter to ensure safe passage for global shipping.

However, divisions persist within the Gulf. Oman has signalled reluctance toward military involvement, while Qatar is distancing itself from the conflict. There has been no clear position yet from Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, highlighting the absence of a unified Gulf Cooperation Council stance.