Iran-Iraq War parallel for Russia-Ukraine conflict; ‘onus on Europe for breakthrough’
By Manish Anand
New Delhi, October 13: Russian war in Ukraine is now in a stage of stalemate, with parallels being drawn to the protracted Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s that lasted eight years. Ukraine is being supplied with fresh ammunitions to keep the war going for years, and the Russian President Vladimir Putin appears digging in heels to stay put for the protracted battle.
Former Foreign Secretary Shashank, while speak to The Raisina Hills, said that the Russian and Ukraine war are now giving signs of going the way Iran and Iraq fought for eight years in the 1980s. “Some days it would appear that Iran is having an edge, and another day it would look as if Iraq would win. They kept fighting for years. The Russian war in Ukraine seems to be in a similar situation,” said Shashank.
Incidentally, the communication window is shut between Moscow and Kyiv to break the ice on the war. The NATO is pushing its relevance in Ukraine by demonstrating its firepower, which has reportedly blunted the Russian attack, leaving the Kremlin with serious reversals. Russia has the oil and gas money to keep funding the war machinery for years, and Moscow has too many allies to blunt the western sanctions.
“Europe will suffer the most from the protracted war in Ukraine. The oil and gas pipeline from Russia to European countries were built with massive investments, and if there is no immediate end to the war Europe will face many hardships, including the worst form of recession in the immediate future,” said Shashank.
The former diplomat reminded that NATO was meant to be dismantled by the end of the World War II, but its expansion in the close vicinity of Russia has been provoking Moscow for several years, compromising the security of the Russians. He said that France at one point of time wanted to leave NATO, with the domestic political constituency being averse to the warmongering by the military alliance.
Incidentally, France is in the midst of severe oil and gas crises, with videos going viral showing massive popular anger against shortages of the fuel on the street. The Winter in Europe could get sharp, with the East Asian tourism economy bracing to host the Europeans in the next few months. The fuel crisis in the Winter months could unleash popular protests on the streets in the European countries to put pressure on their leadership to step in aggressively to end the war in Ukraine.
The diplomatic community believes that the US would be cold to the idea of conceding to Putin to find ways for a ceasefire on the Ukrainian battlefield. The US may in fact profiteer from the Ukraine war and avert the recession in the country. That would make Europe the only loser, said some of the former diplomats.
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What a detailed coverage on Russia – Eukrane war, consequences for the entire world (maximum suffering to Europe).
This is something a real worry considering what world has seen in Iraq – Iran war.