Will Israel go after Iran’s Khamenei & his possible successors?

Early sign of Israel-Iran War lights up Middle East Sky

By Manish Anand

New Delhi, October 2: One of the Iranian missiles landed at stone’s throw from Mossad’s headquarters in Tel Aviv last night. The missile created a crater 30 feet deep and 50 feet wide.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Iran has committed a big mistake and will pay for it”. The Israeli Air Force per local reports will be in action Wednesday night.

After April missile attack against Israel, Iran showed a better strike capability on Tuesday. Iron Dome air defence system could not neutralise all the Iranian missiles.

Also Read: US takes guards for Israel ahead of ground incursion in Lebanon 

Several of the Iranian missiles hit key infrastructure of Israel. Iran has vowed that Tehran will launch more fierce attacks if Israel retaliates.

In all likelihoods, Iran-Israel War is in the offing. Michael Rubin in his assessment of the tension for the Middle East Forum argued that Netanyahu has timespan till January 2025 to go after Iran.

By January, the US will have new president in the office. “Israeli leaders also might assess that while President Joe Biden will not restrain Israel, a Kamala Harris administration might try to constrain Israel’s ability to deter or retaliate,” argued Rubin, adding that “as such, Israel has an incentive to do as much as possible before January 20, 2025, to eliminate every threat it might face”.

Israel had not retaliated against April missile attacks by Iran. A few weeks later, then Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi die in a helicopter crash while travelling to border areas with Azerbaijan.

Also Read: Lessons for India from Israel eliminating Hezbollah’s Nasrallah 

Rubin speculates in escalating Israel’s template of eliminating the Hezbollah leadership in his article. “If (Hassan) Nasrallah’s elimination has sowed confusion in Hezbollah and disrupted its command and control, what might Khamenei’s elimination do,” asked Rubin.

He argued that “it would be legal for Israel to target (Ayatollah) Khamenei (supreme leader of Iran)”. “Under the Iranian constitution, Khamenei is commander in chief with ultimate authority over the Iranian Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” added Rubin.

The Middle East strategic Affairs analyst listed out possible Israeli targets in Iran – Khamenei, top contender for supreme leader position Mojtaba Khamenei, and others such as Mohsen Araki and Alireza Arafi.

Analysts in the Middle East argue that Israel’s offensives in Lebanon against Hezbollah is a ruse to provoke Iran for a war. They argued that Iran is on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb, and Israel’s “existential fear” will thereafter turn ominous.

Also Read: Iran’s call to start regional war if Hassan Nasrallah is dead 

Analysts are referring to old statement of Netanyahu – “Whoever does not understand force, will understand much more force”. Israel’s stockpiles of ammunitions are brimming with stocks supplied by the US.

The bomb that killed Nasrallah was supplied by the US. The Joe Biden administration may also seek to punish Iran for replenishing missile stockpiles of Russia against Ukraine. Netanyahu per analysts appear in tango with Biden in opening the Middle East war theatre.

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About The Author

Manish Anand

Manish Anand is a senior journalist with more than two decades of hardcore reporting on beats such as Prime Minister’s Office, Parliament, BJP, Congress, Planning Commission, NITI Aayog, and scores of Union Ministries.

His past has been with The New Indian Express, The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle, and The Statesman.

For about 15 years, Manish was also a regular commentator and host for talks on AIR on foreign affairs.

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