When Shepherd Falters, Wolves Rise: Bangladesh at the Brink

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As mob rule, Islamist resurgence and a hollowed-out election loom in 2026, India faces a hard truth: neutrality is no longer an option in its eastern neighbourhood

By TRH World Desk

New Delhi, December 20, 2025 — There is an old proverb: the priest is a shepherd, the world is a wolf. Bangladesh today seems to be living out this metaphor in real time. The shepherd has weakened, the wolves have sensed blood, and the flock is scattered.

What we are witnessing in Bangladesh is not merely pre-election turbulence. It is a deeper unravelling of state authority. Lynching, arson, attacks on minorities—especially Hindus—and assaults on independent media are no longer sporadic incidents. They point to the rise of mob rule in Dhaka, Chattogram and beyond. Even more worrying is the perception that the Bangladesh Army, once the final stabilising force, appears hesitant in confronting Islamist street power.

Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule, often criticised for its excesses, now appears less like a norm and more like an exception in Bangladesh’s violent political history. The irony is stark: the nation born in 1971 after unimaginable brutality—including mass rapes and genocide—seems to have collectively forgotten the lessons of its own liberation. Old tormentors are being forgiven; new alliances are being courted.

The road to the 2026 elections raises further alarms. With the Awami League effectively sidelined and other major parties weakened, the democratic contest risks becoming political theatre. Jamaat-e-Islami’s rehabilitation and the growing clout of Islamist networks suggest that elections may serve less to reflect popular will and more to legitimise a new power structure. As Sajeeb Wazed Joy has warned, barring major parties disenfranchises nearly half the electorate—hardly the foundation of a credible democracy.

For India, this crisis is not distant or abstract. Instability in Bangladesh directly impacts India’s security, border management and moral standing in South Asia. Millions of minorities live across the border; their safety cannot be treated as an internal matter alone. Neutrality, in this context, becomes complicity by silence.

India may not be positioned—politically or militarily—for direct intervention. But doing nothing is also a choice, and a dangerous one. As regional fault lines widen, New Delhi must articulate a firm, principled stance that combines diplomacy, pressure, and preparedness.

When wolves rule the streets, the shepherd’s silence is not wisdom. It is abdication.