US H-1B Wallback Shows India–US Tech Interdependence: Expert
photo credit twitter @tech_mahindra
Navroop Singh argues that Big Tech’s reliance on Indian talent forced White House to soften Trump’s H-1B order, but urges Indian IT giants to pivot from legacy outsourcing to AI, defence, and deep tech.
By S JHA
MUMBAI, September 21, 2025 — When the Trump administration unveiled its $100,000 H-1B visa fee proclamation, panic rippled across India’s IT sector. But according to political and economic commentator Navroop Singh, it was America’s own dependence on Indian talent that forced a walkback.
On X, Singh argued: “Indian IT services firms were bailed out because Big Tech and healthcare in the US run on H-1B. There would have been a systematic collapse without exceptions. The interdependence of the two economies and tech ecosystems saved the day.”
Indeed, the White House fact sheet reveals broad exemptions, with JP Morgan, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, as well as US healthcare institutions heavily reliant on H-1B professionals. Even Indian IT majors like TCS and Infosys, though they have halved their H-1B intake from 50,000 to 27,000 in recent years, still underpin much of America’s back-end tech architecture.
The Strategic Shift in Indian IT
But Singh warns the reprieve is not enough. The Infosys–Murthy–Nilekani model of outsourcing services is outdated, he says. Indian IT must reinvent itself by:
- Pivoting toward AI adoption, engineering services, and product-oriented models,
- Funding domestic tech startups and building proprietary tech stacks,
- Expanding into semiconductors, GPUs, sovereign cloud, and hyperscale data centers,
- And accelerating entry into defence indigenisation and renewable energy ecosystems.
“We need more Palantirs, not food delivery apps masquerading as tech companies,” Singh wrote, bluntly dismissing firms like Zomato and Swiggy as consumer platforms rather than technology innovators.
India’s Industrial Revolution 4.0
Singh sees a broader transformation underway, where India’s next infrastructure boom will not be roads and railways but data farms, defence technology, EVs, renewable energy, and automation. Major conglomerates from Tata to Reliance, Adani, Airtel, and L&T are already laying the groundwork.
The call to action is clear:
- Government must provide policy and lending support,
- Private capital must channel investment into IR 4.0 industries,
- And Indian IT giants must lead the way in creating global-standard products and platforms, not just services.
The Bigger Lesson
The Trump order and its walkback expose a paradox: America cannot run without Indian tech talent, yet India cannot forever rely on exporting coders to sustain growth. As Singh notes, “offshoring and GCCs [Global Capability Centers] in India will rise,” but the real opportunity is to build domestic innovation capacity.
The episode is a reminder that while political whims can shake visa regimes, the deeper truth is one of interdependence. The future, however, belongs to those who invest in AI, defence, and green energy—not those clinging to the past.
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