Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web: Will Putin Pull Nuclear Trigger?
Ukraine’s Operation Spider's web mounted drones on trucks (Iamges X.com)
Russia’s Likely Response to Ukraine’s Operation Spider: Geopolitical Experts Weigh In on Escalation Risks
By TRH News Desk
NEW DELHI, June 3, 2025 –Ukraine’s audacious Operation Spider’s Web, a large-scale drone assault yesterday, targeting Russian airbases and reportedly damaging or destroying over 40 warplanes, including strategic bombers, has sent shockwaves through the geopolitical landscape. Experts are speculating on Russia’s potential response, with opinions ranging from measured retaliation to heightened military pressure.
Speculations are going wild amid fears of further escalation in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The operation, executed on the eve of peace talks in Istanbul, has raised questions about diplomatic prospects and the risk of a broader confrontation.
A “Balanced” Response Expected?
Major General (Ret.) Shashi Asthana, a prominent Indian geopolitical and military analyst, took to X to share his perspective, stating, “Serious escalation by Ukraine dependent on others. If US President Donald Trump knew it then he is being double faced and irresponsible, if not he has been taken for ride by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy trying to push everyone in WW III or nuclear war. Russian response expected to be balanced and responsible.”
Asthana’s view suggests Russia may opt for a restrained yet firm reaction, avoiding actions that could spiral into a global or nuclear conflict, despite the provocative nature of Ukraine’s strike.
Escalation and Retaliation on the Table
Other experts see Russia leaning toward a more assertive response. Irina Tsukerman, a geopolitical analyst and president of Scarab Rising, told The National Interest, “Ukraine’s weekend wave of deep strikes marks a decisive evolution in the conflict, one with implications the Kremlin can’t easily shrug off.” She suggests Russia may intensify military operations, particularly targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, to reassert dominance and counter the blow to its prestige and strategic capabilities.
Reports indicate Russia has already launched 472 drones and 7 missiles in retaliation, marking the largest drone attack since the invasion began in February 2022, aimed at crippling Ukrainian energy and defence facilities.
Patricia Lewis, director of the International Security Programme at Chatham House, commented on the nuclear rhetoric surrounding the operation. “Russian statements about nuclear capabilities are scare tactics, designed to intimidate the West and bolster domestic support,” she said in a recent analysis. However, she cautioned, “They must be taken seriously, as the targeting of strategic bombers, part of Russia’s nuclear triad, raises the stakes.”
Lewis believes Russia is unlikely to cross the nuclear threshold but may ramp up conventional strikes to signal strength.
Geopolitical analyst Frederik Mertens, a strategic expert with the Dutch research organization TNO, told Newsweek, “To pull off a complex special operation, security must be very strict.” He suggests Russia will likely bolster anti-drone defences, investing in radar nets, jamming equipment, and perimeter sensors to protect static bases. “Russia is likely to invest heavily in anti-drone defences,” Mertens added, predicting a shift in tactics to counter Ukraine’s innovative drone warfare.
Russian milbloggers and state media have framed the strikes as a challenge to Russia’s nuclear stability, with some nationalist voices calling for a harsh response. @Manuelammm7 posted on X, “Putin’s Revenge: Russian propagandists & national media are now arguing for a tactical nuclear response to Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb. Some are even calling for the deployment of devastating Russian Oreshnik missiles.” While experts doubt a nuclear escalation, the rhetoric underscores domestic pressure on President Putin to act decisively.
Diplomatic and Military Balancing Act
Dr. Joanna Szostek, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, noted, “Russian authorities excel at suppressing protest and have stepped up repression. A collapse or drastic escalation is unlikely unless elite divisions emerge.” She suggests Russia may focus on intensifying operations in eastern Ukraine, as @Voice7Europe posted on X: “Moscow vows a ‘proportionate’ response to the Spider Web attack, ramping up operations in eastern Ukraine and intensifying military pressure on cities.” This aligns with reports of Russia detaining suspects linked to the operation and labelling it a “terrorist attack,” signaling a mix of legal, propaganda, and military countermeasures.
Global Implications and Uncertainty
The timing of Operation Spider’s Web, just before ceasefire talks in Istanbul, has drawn scrutiny. Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek, “The strikes help Kyiv ‘negotiate from a position of strength.’” However, Russia’s response could complicate diplomacy. Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s chief negotiator, presented a “detailed” ceasefire memorandum, including a proposed two- or three-day pause in some frontline areas, but the drone strikes may harden Moscow’s stance.
Geopolitical experts remain divided. While some, like Asthana, predict a “balanced” response to avoid a wider war, others warn of heightened conventional retaliation and anti-drone investments. The risk of miscalculation looms large, with the world watching to see if Russia’s reaction will deepen the conflict or pave the way for de-escalation. As Tsukerman noted, “The Kremlin can’t easily shrug off” this blow, leaving the next move in Moscow’s hands.
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