Trump’s Venezuela Moves Could Hand Beijing a Taiwan Playbook

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From maritime coercion to extra-legal force, US actions in Venezuela risk normalising tactics China could one day deploy against Taiwan.

By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

New Delhi, December 17, 2025 — The United States may believe it is dealing with a familiar irritant in Venezuela. But as Peter Kurz warns in an article in Business Today, Washington’s latest actions there risk setting a precedent far more dangerous than any single confrontation in Latin America—one that Beijing is almost certainly studying with care.

Venezuela has long tested US patience. Its leadership, noted the article in Business Today, aligned with China, Russia and Iran, slid into a crude personality-driven autocracy, and presided over an economy hollowed out by misrule. Allegations of drug smuggling through Venezuelan routes into the United States are serious, but they are hardly unique in the region. What is new—and troubling—is the Trump administration’s apparent willingness to attack suspected drug-running vessels in ways that stretch, and possibly violate, international law and the US Constitution. These actions look less like law enforcement and more like the opening moves of regime change, added the opinion piece in Business Today.

American interventionism has deep roots. From Afghanistan to Iraq, Washington has repeatedly sought to shape the internal politics of other states. Latin America, in particular, carries the scars of at least 18 covert US regime-change operations during the Cold War, added the article. The outcomes were rarely democratic stability; instead, they produced blowback, resentment and long-term mistrust.

What makes Venezuela especially alarming today is its potential relevance far beyond the hemisphere. The article in Business Today argues that China may see the unfolding US approach as a rehearsal for Taiwan. The pattern is familiar: harassment of shipping, selective enforcement, airspace restrictions, and a steadily expanding definition of “security.” Venezuela, despite its oil reserves, depends on imported fuel—just as Taiwan relies on LNG shipments and air freight to sustain its semiconductor-driven economy.

China has already tested maritime coercion closer to home. In the South China Sea, its coast guard has blocked Philippine resupply missions using water cannons, dangerous manoeuvres and physical obstruction. If Washington normalises extra-legal force against a weaker state, it risks giving Beijing precisely the justification it needs to apply similar tactics against Taiwan—while claiming compliance with newly flexible global norms.

The danger escalates if US actions drift toward open conflict or invasion. The article in Business Today warned that such a move would hand China a ready-made model for isolating and pressuring Taiwan, even if the strategic context differs. Venezuela’s allies are currently constrained—Russia is bogged down elsewhere, Iran weakened, and China already embroiled in a trade war with the US. Taiwan, the business magazine notes pointedly, must never be left to stand alone.

Complicating matters further is America’s domestic backdrop: political fragility, voter anger over living costs, and growing bipartisan concern over the legality of Venezuelan operations. Lawmakers are beginning to ask whether a line has already been crossed.

The warning is stark. If Washington does not draw that line soon, others—especially Beijing—may decide it no longer exists.