Trump’s Tariff Playbook: Markets Brace for “China Meeting” Rally

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Stock markets weigh Trump’s tariff threats — from panic posts to “deal” rallies — as talks with Xi Jinping in two weeks loom.

By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

New Delhi, October 17, 2025 — For nearly a year, markets have been playing an increasingly predictable game of tariff roulette — one that US President Donald Trump appears to script and time with precision. In its latest analysis, The Kobeissi Letter claims to have cracked this pattern, outlining a 10-step “tariff playbook” that has guided investor sentiment through waves of fear, relief, and euphoria.

According to the report, each cycle begins with a cryptic social media post from Trump hinting at tariffs targeting a specific nation or sector, sending markets drifting lower. Soon after, a formal announcement of sweeping tariffs — often above 50% — triggers a sharp market correction, shaking out leveraged and weak hands.

Then comes the rebound. Dip buyers enter, only to be trapped in a “head fake” rally that gives way to new lows, where “smart money” quietly accumulates. By the end of the week, Trump typically doubles down on his stance, prompting an anxious response from the targeted nation over the weekend.

The turning point, Kobeissi notes, arrives on Sunday evenings — when Trump signals optimism or a possible resolution, often just before US futures open. Markets spike at the open but lose steam by Monday, only to be calmed later by Treasury Secretary John Bessent or other administration officials promising “progress.”

Over the following weeks, officials tease breakthroughs in trade talks until Trump announces a “new deal”, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh highs.

Now, with Trump revealing that he will meet China’s President Xi in two weeks, The Kobeissi Letter says the final phase of the playbook — “step #10” — may already be in motion. “Timing (two weeks) is exactly in line,” the post notes, implying the market’s next rally could coincide with a familiar tariff détente narrative.

Analysts claim that markets are not just reacting to tariffs — they are trading the theatre around them. Trump’s posts, timing, and language have effectively become a tool of market choreography, creating cycles of fear and relief that savvy traders can now anticipate.

Whether the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting delivers a real breakthrough or just another rally remains to be seen. But as The Kobeissi Letter concludes, “This is the exact playbook — and it’s playing out again.”

The latest script played around Trump’s fiery post on China’s substitution of soybean imports from the US with Brazil. Trump vowed “retribution.” But now he speaks of meeting Xi while he earlier wrote of not meeting the Chinese President.

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