Trump’s Russia Sanctions Will Take Months to Bite: Analyst

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**In conversation with Al Arabiya English, Shane McGinley explains why Donald Trump’s new sanctions on Moscow won’t cripple the Kremlin overnight.**

By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

New Delhi, October 25, 2025 — Sanctions may make for dramatic headlines, but their real-world impact often unfolds in slow motion. As Shane McGinley told Al Arabiya English, Donald Trump’s new sanctions on Russia are unlikely to bring the Kremlin to its knees anytime soon — not because they lack intent, but because the world’s energy logistics move far slower than Washington’s political clock.

“Oil sanctions don’t work like a light switch,” McGinley noted, who added: “You can’t just call up Delhi and Beijing and tell them to stop buying Russian crude — this is an oil tanker, not a speedboat.”

That metaphor captures the heart of the challenge. Despite years of Western penalties, Russian oil exports have remained remarkably resilient. Rystad Energy, an Oslo-based analytics firm, estimates that the past three and a half years of sanctions have had “very little impact” on either Moscow’s output volumes or total revenues. The Kremlin itself insists that oil and gas now make up only about 27% of its federal budget, down from earlier highs — a statistic it wields to claim fiscal immunity.

“The real test lies not in Moscow’s rhetoric but in Asia’s refineries. Between them, India and China account for the bulk of Russia’s post-Ukraine oil exports, with India’s refiners sourcing nearly 60% of their Russian supply from two companies now under US sanctions,” he added.

McGinley claimed that “Reports suggest that New Delhi may gradually comply with Trump’s directive, and that private refiners are already pivoting to non-Russian crude. Beijing, too, is showing restraint, with Reuters reporting that China plans to scale back Russian imports.”

Still, the pivot will take months, not days. “Long-term supply contracts stretch into November, and logistical alternatives — notably Iraq and Gulf producers — cannot ramp up shipments overnight,” he added. The oil market’s response on Friday, a 5% price jump, reflected that reality: traders expect tightening supply, but not instant disruption.

For now, Trump’s sanctions serve more as a strategic signal than an immediate stranglehold. McGinley’s assessment is sober: “The war isn’t going to end next week because of this. It’ll take at least two to six months for any real economic pain to register — and meanwhile, soldiers are still dying.”

The world’s energy diplomacy, in other words, may determine what Washington’s sanctions cannot. Whether India and China shift their barrels decisively away from Russia will decide if Trump’s gambit translates into genuine leverage — or another round of slow-burn geopolitics where oil, once again, outpaces ideology.