Trump’s China Conundrum Could Thaw India–US Ties
US President Donald Trump, PM Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping (Image credit X.com)
US National Security Strategy Flags China as ‘Primary Challenge’: What It Means for India in a Year of Strained Modi–Trump Ties
By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk
New Delhi, December 8, 2025 — The United States has released its latest National Security Strategy (NSS) — a 33-page document that arrives at a moment of visible strain in India–US political engagement. With no signs of President Donald Trump’s much-anticipated India visit materialising in 2025, and with the Quad Leaders’ Summit stalled, Washington’s document has attracted intense interest in New Delhi.
A Historic Admission: “China Policy Was Wrong for Decades”
For the first time, the US has officially acknowledged that its long-standing belief — that integrating China into global supply chains would moderate Beijing’s behaviour — was a strategic miscalculation.
The document clearly states:
- China is now the primary strategic challenge to US interests.
- Beijing could use its dominance in the South China Sea to disrupt global trade flows.
This clarity alone marks the sharpest American strategic turn since the Cold War.
Why India Features Prominently
Amid an otherwise tense diplomatic backdrop, the NSS describes India as a “critical partner” — particularly in countering China’s rise and securing the Indo-Pacific. The document emphasises:
- India’s role in maintaining free movement and maritime security in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea
- India’s strategic weight in the Quad, despite Trump skipping the leaders’ summit
- India’s growing contribution to the global economy
This endorsement signals that the US sees India not merely as a regional balancer but as a long-term pillar of its Indo-Pacific architecture.
The Timing: A Diplomatic Freeze at the Top
2025 is ending without a Trump–Modi meeting, raising questions about the personal chemistry that once defined the partnership. Trump’s repeated references to India–Pakistan tensions, and Washington’s evolving China outreach, have sharpened speculation.
Yet, the NSS suggests that Washington wants to keep the India option open, maintaining official-level engagements:
- Quad working groups continue
- Trade and tariff consultations are ongoing
- US participation in India-based security dialogues remains intact
The freeze, therefore, is political — not institutional.
China–US Thaw and India’s Market Jitters
A recent moderation in Trump–Xi rhetoric has rattled sections of India’s markets, particularly companies riding the “China-Plus-One” sentiment. The NSS does not reverse this trend but acknowledges the US will seek managed competition with China.
This complicates India’s geopolitical calculus, especially after the Putin–Modi meeting, where New Delhi and Moscow discussed post-Ukraine war alignments.
Could India–US Ties Reset in 2026?
The NSS hints at a possibility: If the Ukraine conflict ends and the US recalibrates its China policy further, Trump may revisit India with a more predictable diplomatic template. India will watch for three signals:
- A resumed Quad Summit
- Restoration of high-level political dialogue
- Clarity on America’s long-term China posture
A Window of Opportunity Amid the Pause
The 2025 NSS leaves one unmistakable takeaway: Even at a time of political distance, the US considers India indispensable to its Indo-Pacific strategy.
For India, the document provides a strategic opening. Whether New Delhi and Washington can rebuild momentum in 2026 will depend on diplomatic choices and the evolving US–China equation.
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