Trump–Xi Busan Summit Spells Trouble for India’s Strategic Goals
US President Donald Trump, PM Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping (Image credit X.com)
As Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet after seven years at the Busan APEC sidelines, experts say a thaw in US–China ties could tilt the Asian power balance toward Beijing — undermining India’s trade, tech, and Indo-Pacific leverage.
By Manish Anand
New Delhi, November 1, 2025 — When Donald Trump and Xi Jinping shook hands at Busan’s APEC sidelines — their first meeting in seven years — the world took notice. Markets steadied, pundits speculated, and diplomats whispered that this was not just another photo-op. The so-called “Farmer Summit,” as some in Beijing and Washington jokingly called it, may be a calm before the geopolitical storm — or the prelude to a major strategic realignment in Asia.
A Calm Before the Storm
Kyrgyz Republic’s former Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbaev, a veteran of Central Asian diplomacy, described the summit as “a lull before the storm.” The US–China trade tensions had been spiralling — from rare earth restrictions to semiconductor sanctions. Yet, the Busan meeting saw both leaders exchange compliments rather than confrontations. Trump called Xi a “great leader”; Xi returned the gesture, emphasising that competition must evolve into “friendly cooperation.”
Behind these pleasantries, however, lies a subtle shift in global power. Xi’s reminder that China controls nearly 70% of global rare earth production and 90% of its processing wasn’t lost on Trump — or the Pentagon. In an era where fighter jets, missiles, and magnets depend on these critical minerals, Beijing’s leverage remains unmatched.
China’s Leverage, America’s Compulsion
Former Indian diplomat and ex-ambassador to Canada Sanjay Kumar Verma believes the Busan summit signals a strategic compromise by the US. “Trump’s conciliatory tone indicates Washington’s dependence on Beijing — both economically and militarily,” he argues. For America, rebuilding its industrial base without Chinese supply chains may simply not be feasible.
That reality, Verma says, is troubling for India. Over the past decade, New Delhi has positioned itself as the “China alternative” — a manufacturing base for Western companies wary of Beijing’s dominance. Apple’s Chennai assembly line, long touted as a Make-in-India success story, is still largely dependent on Chinese components. A softening of US–China relations could stall India’s ambitions to replace China in the global supply chain.
India’s Strategic Setback
For India, the implications go beyond economics. The Indo-Pacific strategy — once the centrepiece of India–US defence cooperation — may lose momentum if Washington and Beijing pursue détente. “The friendlier the US–China equation becomes, the weaker India’s strategic relevance appears in Asia,” Verma observes.
The Trump administration’s ongoing tariffs on Indian exports — between 15% and 50% on certain goods — have yet to be rolled back. Without tangible trade relief or a clear signal from Washington, India risks being sidelined as the US balances its rivalry and partnership with China.
A Wake-Up Call for New Delhi
The Busan summit exposes the volatility of global diplomacy. While Xi played the philosopher, invoking the need for “harmony between great powers,” Trump appeared eager to reset economic ties. Their smiles may have soothed global markets, but for India, they raise difficult questions about over-reliance on a fracturing Western alliance.
As New Delhi prepares to host major Indo-Pacific engagements later this year, one truth stands out: the Trump–Xi thaw could leave India geopolitically colder than before.
(This is an opinion piece, and views expressed are those of the author. Manish Anand is a political analyst and commentator on foreign policy, diplomacy, and India’s strategic affairs)
Follow The Raisina Hills on WhatsApp, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, and LinkedIn
About The Author
Right on the button. Unimaginable challenge for India.