Trump Tariffs Toss US into Arms of Recession as Job Growth Sinks

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Weakest three-month job growth since 2010, falling tourism, and consumer pullback deepen fears that US economy is slipping into a recession

By TRH Global Affairs Desk

August 1, 2025 — Alarm bells are ringing across Wall Street and Main Street alike as a combination of slowing job growth, declining consumer spending, and fallout from US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies cast a shadow over the largest economy of the world.

According to Jamie Dupree, political commentator, “May-June-July is the weakest 3-month period of job growth since COVID. If you throw out 2020, it’s the weakest 3-month period since 2010 and the aftermath of the Great Recession.”

Fresh labour data shows payroll growth collapsing, with just 14,000 jobs added in June (preliminary), down from 463,000 in June 2023. July preliminary figures show only 73,000 jobs, making it one of the weakest three-month stretches for employment in over a decade.

In fact, Eric Feigl-Ding, a public health expert turned economic analyst, noted: “Worst monthly payroll revision drop-off (worse than estimated layoffs) in recorded U.S. history since 1979… with exception of April 2020.”

Manufacturing Slump Deepens Amid Tariffs

Pete Buttigieg, another US-based commentator, added to the growing criticism, citing manufacturing job losses as a direct consequence of Trump’s new tariff regime. “Today’s jobs report shows 24,000 factory jobs lost in the past three months. Trump’s first term brought a manufacturing recession. Now his reckless tariffs are making Americans worse off, again,” he stated.

A July 30 White House statement announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on 70 countries, with India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam among those impacted. While essential categories like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors were exempted, many labour-intensive manufacturing sectors were hit hard, potentially inflating input costs for US businesses.

Tourism, Spending, Markets Signal Retreat

Las Vegas — a barometer for consumer confidence — reported an 11% drop in tourism revenue, a development Brian Allan called a “stunning signal that a recession is knocking.” “Vegas is the canary in the coal mine. When people stop spending there, it means they’re cutting back everywhere,” he argued in a post on X.

Economic strategist Matthew B. highlighted that US consumer spending has declined in the first six months of 2025 — a rare event outside of recessionary years. “In the last 18 years, that’s only happened once outside a recession — in early 2010,” he posted on X.

Markets React: Recession Trade in Play

Investor sentiment has rapidly deteriorated. “Stocks getting slammed. Bonds rallying hard. Recession trade is on,” said Spencer Hakimian, echoing the view that investors are rushing to safer assets amid uncertainty, while writing on X.

Saira Malik, Chief Investment Officer at Nuveen, warned that policy inertia could make things worse: “History shows if the Fed waits until the employment markets crack to cut interest rates, it’s too late, and that usually leads us into a recession,” she said in an interview to Bloomberg TV.

Is the US Already in a Recession?

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which tracks six key indicators to determine recessions, has not made an official call yet. But economist Peter Berezin says: “I don’t think we’re quite there yet, but it’s a close call.”

The Independent Institute added a contrarian voice, blaming poor policy rather than market failures for historic downturns: “The Great Depression & Great Recession weren’t capitalism’s failures—they were government failures.”

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