Trump Tariffs on India May Prove Costly Missteps for US: Mohr

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Trump’s Tariffs Put India–US Ties to the Test as New Delhi Eyes Strategic Diversification

By TRH Global Affairs Desk

NEW DELHI, August 8, 2025 — US President Donald Trump’s sharp rhetoric branding India a “dead economy” and his imposition of steep tariffs on Indian exports have dealt a fresh blow to bilateral ties once touted as a model strategic partnership. Christoph P. Mohr, who heads the India Office of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Delhi, argued that the upcoming SCO Summit in China could be India’s launchpad to diversify trade relations.

“In recent public remarks, Trump accused New Delhi of being a “difficult trading partner” and of failing to cooperate in bilateral trade — a charge that resonates in Washington but is viewed in India as selective targeting,” Mohr wrote in the IPS journal.

He stated that while “China and Turkey have faced few repercussions for similar behaviour over Russian energy purchases, India has gone from enjoying symbolic gestures and special arrangements during Trump’s first term to being a direct target of his trade policy in the second.”

“The shift underscores a broader change in American foreign policy: values and long-term partnerships now take a back seat to transactional usefulness as defined by Trump,” added Mohr in the article. He argued that the latest punitive measures for India are especially stinging, as they target products of strategic relevance and highlight the fragility of its economic asymmetry.

“Unlike China’s robust and diversified export base, India remains reliant on a few key sectors — IT services, pharmaceuticals, and jewellery — that are highly vulnerable to protectionist measures,” added the analyst.

Structural Pressure, Strategic Opportunity

India’s ambitions as a rising power are clear: a growing economy, a young and dynamic population, and a government positioning itself as the voice of the Global South. “Yet it remains dependent on global supply chains in critical sectors such as semiconductors, aviation, energy, and pharmaceuticals. Domestic industrial policies, including the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, aim for strategic self-reliance but are years away from maturity,” noted Mohr.

Despite the vulnerabilities, the moment also presents a chance for strategic recalibration, he argued. “New Delhi is intensifying efforts to diversify trade ties — accelerating negotiations with the European Union for a free trade agreement, deepening partnerships with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Gulf states, and keeping channels open for selective cooperation with China despite longstanding disputes,” wrote Mohr.

He argued that “the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to attend, could provide early signals of this recalibration. India’s objective is not bloc politics but preserving strategic autonomy in an increasingly multipolar order.”

Risk to Washington’s Influence

From New Delhi’s perspective, Washington’s tariff offensive risks eroding trust painstakingly built over the past quarter century, he stated. “Analysts warn that pressure and threats rarely succeed with India and could even nudge it closer to BRICS partners in a way that dilutes US influence in the developing global order,” added Mohr.

As systemic competition with China heats up, alienating India — one of the few countries capable of balancing Beijing while serving as a bridge to the Global South — could prove a costly strategic misstep for the US, warned Mohr.

“In a volatile world, trust and reliability have become geopolitical assets. And for now, the United States is rapidly spending that capital in New Delhi,” he added.