Trump Tariff Sparks Fears of Political Instability in Japan

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CDP leader warns of possible no-confidence motion over Ishiba government’s handling of U.S. trade tensions

By TRH Global Affairs Desk

NEW DELHI, July 11, 2025 — Japan’s domestic politics is heating up amid growing anxieties over renewed U.S.-Japan trade tensions, with opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda warning that the Shigeru Ishiba government’s “dysfunctional” response to potential American tariffs could trigger political fallout, including a no-confidence vote this fall.

Speaking on Fuji TV’s political affairs program on July 10, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) heavyweight and former Prime Minister criticized the Ishiba administration’s handling of the tariff negotiations with Washington.

“It is far too dysfunctional,” Noda said. “If the government makes a major advance in the upcoming House of Councillors election, there is a good chance that a motion of no confidence in the cabinet will be submitted at some point in the fall,” he told the television channel.

Tensions escalated after U.S. President Donald Trump, sent a letter to Ishiba, on tariff measures imposed on Japan. Trump in the letter informed that Japan will attract 25% tariffs. Japan’s key sectors such as automobiles, semiconductors, and electronics—industries central to Japan’s export-driven economy—are likely to be adversely affected by Trump tariffs. Trump also announced 25% tariffs against South Korea.

Experts stated that under the Trump administration in first term (2017–2021), Japan was pressured into bilateral trade talks and agreed to a limited trade deal in 2019 that lowered tariffs on U.S. agricultural products in exchange for sparing Japanese car exports from higher duties. However, Trump had left the broader trade architecture—including Japan’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)—in tatters after unilaterally withdrawing the U.S. in 2017.

The Ishiba government has tried to maintain a cautious stance, holding discreet talks with Washington while avoiding public escalation. However, critics say this low-key approach reflects strategic confusion. They argued that “Japan is sleepwalking into another economic crisis.”

Noda’s comments suggest that the issue could spill into Japan’s political arena, particularly if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gains further ground in the July upper house elections. A stronger LDP showing might embolden Prime Minister Ishiba to reshuffle his Cabinet—but also fuel opposition momentum if public confidence remains low on economic resilience and trade preparedness.

If Japan revisits political instability, it will be a first for Trump tariffs to muddy the domestic politics of an affected nation. East Asian nations, which are mostly export-driven economies, are already dreading prospects of economic upheavals seeping into their domestic politics.

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