Trump–Modi Overture: High Stakes Diplomacy Amid Tariff Tensions

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As Donald Trump hails his “very good friend” Modi and signals progress on trade negotiations, looming tariff threats and divergent Russia policies test the resilience of the India–US partnership.

By TRH Global Affairs Desk

NEW DELHI, September 10, 2025— US President Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Wednesday morning, announcing that the United States and India were “continuing negotiations to address the trade barriers” between the two nations. Trump struck a characteristically warm tone towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him a “very good friend” and expressing confidence in reaching a “successful conclusion” on trade talks.

The Prime Minister was quick to respond with equal cordiality, underscoring the “limitless potential” of the India-US partnership. “Our teams are working to conclude these discussions at the earliest,” Modi posted, while also looking ahead to a direct conversation with Trump.

The exchange comes at a sensitive juncture in global diplomacy. Trump, while reaffirming his intent to lower barriers with India, has also demanded the European Union impose 100% tariffs on India and China to punish them for what he frames as indirect support to Russia. This dual-track approach—courting New Delhi while threatening punitive tariffs—reflects both the promise and peril of the current phase in US-India relations.

Tariffs and Trust Deficit

India has long chafed under US tariffs on steel and aluminum, imposed during Trump’s previous presidency, while Washington has pressed New Delhi to lower duties on American agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade. Negotiations have stalled repeatedly over market access, intellectual property, and e-commerce rules.

While Trump’s latest outreach suggests momentum, the undercurrent remains fraught. India’s concerns over unilateral tariffs, paired with US anxiety about India’s balancing act with Russia, inject a layer of strategic mistrust that mere bonhomie between leaders may not easily erase.

A Shifting Multilateral Landscape

The timing is telling. Just this week, Modi skipped the BRICS virtual summit, sending External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in his place—a move widely read as showing India’s growing geopolitics discomfort. Jaishankar raised the issue of India’s “largest trade imbalances being with the BRICS member nations.”

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged guarded rhetoric of “cooperation,” but the reality of border disputes and strategic distrust looms large. Against this backdrop, Trump’s warm outreach stands in contrast to his fiery calls for tariff walls against India in the European context.

Analysts See Opportunity, but Also Contradictions

Farwa Aamer, Director at Asia Policy, noted on X that “a direct Modi-Trump channel could iron out issues and seems like that may be materialising.” But she also cautioned that Trump’s simultaneous call for punitive tariffs on India over Russia “remains a tension point.”

That contradiction encapsulates the state of play: the personal rapport between Trump and Modi has often smoothed political optics, yet the structural challenges of trade imbalances, divergent Russia policies, and tariff brinkmanship persist.

India’s Challenges in Trump Era

For Modi, whose government is positioning India as both a manufacturing hub and a geopolitical balancer, the optics of being courted by Trump bolster New Delhi’s leverage. For Trump, eager to reclaim his image as a master negotiator, a breakthrough with India could serve as a symbolic foreign policy win.

But the unresolved question remains: will personal warmth translate into durable policy alignment, or will tariffs and geopolitical divides once again derail the narrative of “natural partners”?

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