‘This Isn’t Peace — It’s a Stopgap’: Analyst Decodes Ukraine Deal
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (Image Zelensky on X)
John Kavulich tells Al Arabiya English that Trump’s proposed 28-point plan forces optics over substance, removes “egregious” provisions, and still leaves security, territory, and $320B in Russian reserves dangerously unresolved.
By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk
New Delhi, November 25, 2025 — Analyst John Kavulich has poured cold water on claims that Ukraine has strategically outplayed Russia by agreeing to the essence of the proposed 28-point peace framework linked to Donald Trump’s team. Speaking to Al Arabiya English, Kavulich said bluntly: “No, not at all.”
According to him, the deal—crafted by Michael and Linda Witkoff with input from Jared Kushner—was shaped “optically and performatively” to deliver a political splash rather than a durable settlement. Kavulich stressed that the structure of the proposal “very much mirrored the Israel–Gaza agreement in terms of who gave what,” relying on staged steps rather than resolving core disputes.
Over the last several days, he said, Russia has repositioned itself as the “victim”, shifting narratives to its advantage. And regardless of what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accepts, “you still need the Russians to agree to it,” he warned.
Kavulich also pushed back against reports that Ukraine had already agreed to nearly all provisions. “I’ve been briefed,” he said, “and I don’t know where a lot of these stories are coming from.” Early negotiations, he revealed, focused on stripping out what he called “the most egregious” elements of the original 28 points—clauses so outlandish they seemed “written by someone who was institutionalized.”
Yet even after removing the most problematic sections, Kavulich said negotiators hit a wall when approaching the core issues.
“This isn’t a peace agreement,” he warned. “This is a stopgap—part to get to the next part, to get to the next part.”
Three major unresolved issues still stand in the way of any sustainable deal: Definition of security guarantees for Ukraine; Territorial terms, including control of contested regions; and Use of the $320 billion in frozen Russian central bank reserves.
Some commentators have dismissed these as minor obstacles. Kavulich disagrees sharply. “Excuse me,” he said, “those are three major, major issues.”
As diplomatic theatrics continue, the analyst warns that progress remains superficial—and the hardest decisions lie ahead.
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