Terrorism Is Mutating, Not Disappearing: Ex-UK Anti-Terror Chief

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Speaking to Al Arabiya News, former UK counter-terrorism chief Major General Chip Chapman says lone actors, micro-radicalisation, and blurred extremism lines pose the biggest security risk in 2025.

By TRH World Desk

New Delhi, December 16, 2025 — Former Head of UK Counter-Terrorism, Major General Chip Chapman, warned that terrorism in Europe and Australia is evolving into harder-to-detect forms, even as governments debate whether the threat has receded.

Speaking to Al Arabiya News, Chapman referred to academic and intelligence assessments indicating that countries such as Italy and Australia witnessed a marked rise in terrorism-related incidents and alerts during 2024, challenging the assumption that Islamist terror networks have been fully dismantled.

“The threat environment has changed,” Chapman said, adding: “We are no longer dealing primarily with centrally directed attacks. What we are seeing instead is micro-extremism, lone actors, and ideological spillovers that are harder to predict and easier to execute.”

Chapman cautioned against conflating extremism, radical protest movements, and terrorism. He stressed that while the three often intersect, they require distinct policy and intelligence responses.

“You must separate extremism from terrorism. If you don’t, you either overreact and alienate communities—or underreact and miss the warning signs,” he added.

On Europe, Chapman pointed out that Italy has emerged as a key concern. He said it was not necessarily because of large-scale attacks. For Italy, he noted its role as a transit zone and the rise of low-tech, opportunistic violence linked to ideological radicalisation.

On Australia, he warned that geographic isolation is no longer a security buffer. “Australia has seen school-level incidents, lone-actor attacks, and online radicalisation pathways that mirror trends in Europe,” he said.

Chapman also flagged the limitations of surveillance-heavy responses, arguing that technology alone cannot substitute for community intelligence, early intervention, and political clarity.

“Scanning systems, databases, and border controls matter, but without judgment and prioritisation, they create noise, not security,” he added.

He emphasised that the most dangerous phase lies ahead—between now and 2026—as conflicts in the Middle East, ideological polarisation in the West, and online radical ecosystems converge.

“The next wave will not look like Paris or London. It will be smaller, messier, and politically easier to miss—until it isn’t,” Chapman warned.