Takaichi’s Taiwan Doctrine Redraws Indo-Pacific Power Lines

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Andreas Fulda calls PM Takaichi’s stance “responsible deterrence,” as Japan signals it will not stay silent in a Taiwan crisis.

By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

New Delhi, November 22, 2025 — Japan has done something its own diplomats long avoided: it has spoken clearly. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decision to state openly that a Taiwan emergency would constitute a “state of existential crisis” for Japan is not loose talk — it is strategic deterrence.

International relations expert Dr Andreas Fulda argues that Japan has finally abandoned its decades-old doctrine of strategic ambiguity, and in doing so, has changed the Indo-Pacific equation. “As the Chinese Communist Party intensifies gray-zone operations and information warfare, Japan’s clarity sends a vital message: aggression will have consequences,” Fulda wrote on LinkedIn.

This is precisely why Beijing is rattled. A blockade of Taiwan is already a massive logistical undertaking for the PLA Navy; factoring in Japanese involvement raises the risk curve dramatically for China’s military planners. Fulda sees Beijing’s loud diplomatic protests not as strength, but as “political theatrics” from a regime that prefers rivals to stay silent and divided.

But this time, Tokyo is neither silent nor divided.

Japan’s shift is not reckless escalation — it is a sober recognition of geopolitical reality. The Indo-Pacific’s stability increasingly depends on coordinated deterrence, not polite hedging. For once, Japan has chosen clarity, and the region is watching.

That clarity is also reshaping Takaichi’s domestic appeal. Japanese commentator Ed Naito, who voted for her in the last three LDP leadership contests, says this is the leader many hoped would emerge. “Calm, rational, articulate and straight,” he writes. “If she gets the kind of tenure Abe enjoyed, she could transform Japan and its leadership role in the Indo-Pacific. To be honest, she is doing better than even I had hoped.”

In a region where power politics is sharpening by the month, Japan’s new doctrine signals something even larger: Tokyo intends to lead, not lurk. And for allies weighing their own positions, that could be the most consequential shift of all.