RJD’s Collapse Exposes the Brutal Grip of Caste Politics: Analyst

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RJD’s collapse echoes its 2010 rout, with Nitish Kumar’s social engineering still dominant and Prashant Kishor reshaping Bihar’s political vocabulary despite electoral losses.

By TRH Political Desk

Patna, November 15, 2025 — Bihar’s 2025 verdict may look unprecedented, but political analyst D. Darsh argues it is not without historical parallels. In a sharply observed analysis, he notes that the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s collapse mirrors its 2010 performance—an outcome that seemed unimaginable in the years when Lalu Prasad Yadav’s caste coalition was considered unshakeable.

When RJD Was Unbeatable

Darsh reminds readers that during Lalu Prasad’s peak, neither the BJP nor the JD(U) could gain traction. “Sushil Modi spent half his political life in fasts and dharnas, yet Lalu remained immovable,” he writes. Lalu’s ability to consolidate and retain his caste base left opponents “breaking their own bones trying to topple him.”

The RJD founder’s famous quip—“this time a genie will emerge from the ballot box”—often proved true. His electoral machine functioned with a stability no rival could match. Darsh argues that only Nitish Kumar’s counter–caste coalition, later rebranded as “social engineering,” could challenge that fortress. Nitish’s political shifts, he suggests, were part of a consistent strategy to keep that coalition intact.

Caste Still Dominates Bihar’s Voter Mindset

Despite the emergence of issues like jobs, migration and industrial stagnation, Darsh says Bihar voters continue to cast ballots along caste lines. Had economic issues truly dominated the 2025 race, Prashant Kishor (PK) and Tejashwi Yadav—who campaigned heavily on unemployment and development—would have fared far better.

“People did not have enough anger toward Nitish Kumar to create a wave against him,” Darsh notes. Large crowds at Mahagathbandhan rallies misled many into believing the contest was close, but the voting patterns told a different story.

He acknowledges allegations of “vote theft” circulating in some quarters but argues that such debates “achieve little” and distract from the larger structural factors shaping the election.

Long Political Struggles, Not Overnight Stars

Darsh stresses that major political careers—those of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar—were built through decades of grassroots struggle, not instant stardom. The modern trend of overnight political rise, he says, began with Arvind Kejriwal, and Prashant Kishor was widely seen as its next iteration.

Kishor’s party may not have delivered results this election, but Darsh insists his impact on Bihar’s political vocabulary has been profound. “He changed the language of the opposition and the electorate,” he writes. Kishor reframed political conversation around development, industry and aspiration—not just benefits and rations.

A New Political Grammar in Bihar

According to Darsh, Kishor and Tejashwi planted “seeds of expectation” that will manifest in the coming years. Voters began questioning why factories flourish in Gujarat while Bihar receives only rations or special trains. Even Tejashwi echoed the sentiment: “Factories in Gujarat, victory in Bihar?”

This shift, he argues, marks a significant evolution. “PK gave Bihar’s people a new vocabulary of demands,” Darsh writes. “More than five kilos of ration, they now want dignity, jobs, and economic opportunity.”

Toward a Post-Caste Politics—Slowly

While Darsh does not predict an outright collapse of caste politics, he believes Bihar’s social boundaries will gradually loosen as demands for growth, industry and employment intensify. “When citizens begin questioning power on these axes, only then can Bihar stand alongside Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu or Kerala,” he writes.

He concludes that though change will be slow, the transformation has begun—and its credit, he suggests, goes partly to Kishor and partly to Tejashwi for daring to shift the narrative in a state long anchored to caste arithmetic.