Partial Aviation Shutdown May Doom US Economy: Analyst

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US Government Shutdown Threatens Economy, Aviation, and Millions of Workers, Says Shane McGinley

By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

New Delhi, November 8, 2025 — In a discussion with Al Arabiya English, business journalist Shane McGinley warned that the ongoing US federal government shutdown, which has left 1.4 million workers unpaid or on forced leave, is beginning to send shockwaves through both the economy and critical industries such as aviation.

Speaking on the program, McGinley noted that the shutdown’s repercussions are already being felt across the $35 billion-a-week commercial aviation sector, as concerns over air safety and staffing shortages draw comparisons to the last major shutdown in 2018–2019. “Analysts have pointed out that it was concerns over aviation safety that broke the last shutdown,” McGinley said, calling the current outlook “not very optimistic.”

He added that even a 10% slowdown in aviation activity could shave off $2 billion a week from the US economy. Beyond aviation, McGinley cited data from the 2019 National Treasury Employees Union, showing that during the previous shutdown, a third of federal workers missed rent or mortgage payments, 42% relied on credit cards for essentials, and 20% turned to food banks.

“While the overall economy will recover, it’s the workers on the ground who suffer most,” he said. “And it’s not just the federal employees — it’s also the cleaners, gardeners, and small contractors who don’t qualify for back pay once the shutdown ends.”

McGinley also highlighted ripple effects on small businesses and federal programs, citing a CNN report showing that federal loans to small enterprises have been halted, food assistance for 42 million Americans is frozen, and education programs like Head Start, serving thousands of low-income children, are suspended.

“This isn’t just a temporary disruption,” McGinley warned. “It’s a widening economic and human crisis that grows deeper with every passing day of the shutdown.”

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