Pakistan Faces High Risk with Trump Tilt on Iran, Warns Expert
Pakistan promoted General Asim Munir to the rank of Field Marshal. (Image X)
Expert Warns of Regional Ramifications with Pakistan Toeing Trump
By TRH News Desk
NEW DELHI, June 29, 2025 – Amid fragile situations in West Asia, Pakistan finds itself at a critical juncture. The United States courted Pakistan ahead of airstrikes against Iran.
Prof. Salman Rafi Sheikh, while writing in Himal Magazine, warned of consequences for Pakistan for going against Iran. In the article titled “Will Pakistan Make a Fatal Mistake Backing the United States Against Iran?”, Sheikh highlights the delicate balancing act Pakistan must navigate amid a rapidly intensifying Israel-Iran conflict and shifting US foreign policy under President Donald Trump.
The article pivoted the commentary on Trump hosting Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for a high-profile lunch in Washington, D.C., on June 18, 2025. This meeting came ahead of the US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites—Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. Sheikh argues that Trump’s outreach to Pakistan, a reversal from his first term’s criticisms of Islamabad as a “safe haven for terrorists,” is driven by the desire of Washington to leverage geography of the Islamic nation. He commented that Trump sought to gain from Pakistan’s proximity and historical ties with Iran.
The Iran-Israel conflict escalated on June 13, 2025. Israel launched missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting Iran’s retaliatory strikes. The US entered the fray on June 21, bombing Iranian nuclear sites. Pakistan shares a 900-kilometer border with Iran while being home to a significant Shia minority.
Sheikh warns that aligning with the US against Iran could be a “fatal mistake” for Pakistan. He highlighted Pakistan’s domestic challenges and lessons from its role in the US-led war in Afghanistan. “Pakistan’s economic struggles, ongoing militant violence in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the risk of sectarian tensions involving Shia population make involvement in a US-Iran conflict highly risky,” Sheikh wrote.
While Sheikh analysed fallout of a conflict, Trump clipped such a prospect with an announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. “A prolonged war could also trigger a refugee crisis and destabilize Pakistan’s border with Iran, further straining its resources,” Sheikh wrote in the magazine.
Trump’s role in the region adds complexity. Initially advocating for diplomacy with Iran, Trump shifted to a hardline stance, demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and contemplating regime change in Tehran.
Sheikh emphasizes Pakistan’s diplomatic tightrope challenges by noting that while Saudi Arabia and the UAE—Pakistan’s key financial backers—oppose Iran, China, a major arms supplier, maintains close ties with Tehran. Pakistan faces pressure to balance competing interests, he adds in the magazine.
He further argues that Pakistan’s siding with Trump could have regional ramifications. Sheikh’s analysis underscores the high stakes: aligning with Washington risks alienating Iran and inflaming domestic tensions, while neutrality could preserve Pakistan’s strategic autonomy but strain its renewed US ties.
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