Overview of Indus Water Treaty: Past Perfect but Future Imperfect

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IWT: Modi post-Uri Attack said ‘Blood & Water cannot flow together’

By Pradeep Kumar Panda

Bhubaneswar, April 26, 2025: Decision of India to put the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) may be seen sudden post-Pahalgam terror attack. But India has been building grounds in recent years to tap into Pakistan-flowing waters for hydropower and irrigation.

The IWT is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, arranged and negotiated by the World Bank, to use the water available in the Indus River and its tributaries.

It was signed in Karachi on 19 September 1960 by then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and then Pakistani President Ayub Khan. On 23 April 2025, the Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced a suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan following the 2025 Pahalgam attack.

The Treaty gives India control over the waters of the three ‘Eastern Rivers’- the Beas, Ravi and Sutlej, which have a total mean annual flow of 41 billion cubic metres. Control over the three ‘Western Rivers’ – the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum – which have a total mean annual flow of 99 billion cubic metres, was given to Pakistan.

India received control of 30% of the total water carried by the rivers, while Pakistan received 70%. The treaty allows India to use the water of Western Rivers for limited irrigation use and unlimited non-consumptive uses such as power generation, navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.

It lays down detailed regulations for India in building projects over the Western Rivers. The preamble of the treaty recognises the rights and obligations of each country for the optimum water use from the Indus System of Rivers in a spirit of goodwill, friendship and cooperation.

Though the treaty is not directly related to national security, Pakistan, being located downstream of India, fears that India could potentially cause floods or droughts in Pakistan, especially during a potential conflict.

During the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947–1948, control over the river system’s water rights were the focus of an Indo-Pakistani water dispute. Since the ratification of the treaty in 1960, most disputes have been settled via the legal framework provided by the treaty, despite several military conflicts having occurred between the two countries.

The Indus Waters Treaty is considered one of the most successful water sharing endeavours in the world today, even though analysts acknowledge the need to update certain technical specifications and expand the scope of the agreement to address climate change.

Pakistan raised concerns with World Bank regarding India’s new dam project on the Chenab River, saying that it is not in conformity with the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) and argued that India could use these reservoirs to create artificial water shortage or flooding in Pakistan.

In 2019, in the aftermath of the Pulwama attack, the Union Minister Nitin Gadkari said that all water flowing from India will be diverted to Indian states to punish Pakistan for an alleged connection to the attack, something which the Pakistani Government denied and condemned. Union Minister of State for Jal Shakti Rattan Lal Kataria said that “every effort is made” to stop the flow of water downstream from the three assigned rivers.

In the aftermath of the 2016 Uri attack, India threatened to revoke the Indus Waters Treaty. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared, “blood and water cannot flow together”. So far, such threats have not materialized. However, India decided to restart the Tulbul Project on the Jhelum River in the Kashmir Valley, which was previously suspended in response to Pakistan’s objections.

Political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi in Lahore said that any change to the water supply of Pakistan would have a “devastating impact”. India stated in February 2020 that it wants to follow the IWT in letter and spirit.

The mandatary annual meeting of the IWT Commissioners has become irregular after the 2019 Pulwama attack and the last meeting took place in May 2022 indicating IWT purpose of mutual cooperation is lost except its arbitration part.

India is undertaking three projects to utilize its full share of the Eastern Rivers, (a) Shahpurkandi dam project on the Ravi River which was completed in 2024 (b) Makaura Pattan Barrage across Ravi River under the second Ravi-Beas link in Punjab and (c) the Ujh Dam project on Ujh River in Jammu and Kashmir. This water will be used by Punjab along with northern hill states.

In 2021, many small hydroelectric projects totalling to 144 MW in Indus basin had been certified as compliant with the treaty by the Indian Central Water Commission, with the project information passed over to Pakistan.

In 2003, J&K state assembly passed a unanimous resolution for the abrogation of the treaty, and again in June 2016, the Jammu and Kashmir assembly demanded revision of the Indus Water Treaty.

The growth in irrigated land and hydropower development is not satisfactory due to the restrictions imposed by the IWT in Jammu and Kashmir. The legislators feel that the treaty trampled upon the rights of the people and treats the state of Jammu and Kashmir as a non-entity.

A public interest petition has been pending since 2016 in the Supreme Court of India seeking to declare the treaty as unconstitutional.

In 2023, India officially notified Pakistan to renegotiate the treaty, alleging that it was repeatedly indulging in actions that are against the spirit and objective of the treaty.

Pakistan has responded to the notice issued by India stating Pakistan cannot take risk of abrogating IWT being a lower riparian party and expressed its desire to adhere to the procedures stipulated in the IWT.

India has not appointed the two judges of the Court of Arbitration (CoA) jury from its side as it had considered simultaneous proceedings of CoA and NE as a violation of the IWT agreement and customary international law. The Court decided that it would consider India’s objection and decide the competence of the Court as a preliminary matter in an expedited proceeding by the end of June 2023.

CoA announced its partial verdict on 6 July 2023 stating that constitution of CoA on the changed request of Pakistan is valid under the provisions of IWT and it would only take up the disputes which are not in the domain of the neutral expert to avoid simultaneous proceedings on same matters by both CoA and neutral expert.

In January 2025, NE delivered an initial verdict stating that NE is fully competent per terms of IWT to adjudicate the differences raised by India. The award of the ongoing Neutral Expert (NE) is expected by the end of 2026. In January, 2025, Jammu and Kashmir State initiated planning activities of Kishanganga II (40 MW) project.

In September 2024, India formally sought review of the Treaty and at the same time Pakistan reaffirmed the importance of the agreement and requested that India would continue to comply with the provisions of the Treaty.

On March 1, 2025, India officially stopped the flow of Ravi River water into Pakistan after 45 years of delays, marking a significant shift in the region’s water dynamics.

On 23 April 2025, following a targeted terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, the Government of India in a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security declared the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan citing national security concerns.

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