Niti Aayog lists 3 legs of ‘demography, democracy, diversity’ for ‘Viksit Bharat’
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Governing Council meeting raises demographic & middle-income trap concerns
By Manish Anand
New Delhi, July 27: The ninth meeting of the Governing Council on Saturday laid the roadmap for ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047. The roadmap consists of 3Ds – Demography, Democracy, and Diversity.
The roadmap states that India will become a $30 trillion economy by 2047. By then India will have a per capital annual income of $18,000.
“As for the economy, to become a developed nation, we need to strive to be a $30 trillion economy by 2047 with a per capita income of $18,000 per annum. The GDP would have to grow nine times from today’s $3.36 trillion and the per capita income would need to rise eight times from today’s $2,392 per annum,” said the plan paper shared by the Niti Aayog at the meeting with the chief ministers.
“The blueprint of the Viksit Bharat rests on three pillars of ‘Demography, Democracy and Diversity’,” added the concept paper.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his remarks at the meeting of the Governing Council called upon the chief ministers to replicate ‘Defecation free villages” for poverty alleviation. “Can we now work for poverty free villages,” Modi asked in the meeting.
The Niti Aayog chief executive officer (CEO) B. V. R. Subrahmanyam, while addressing a press conference at the National Media Centre, said that the chief ministers raised the issue of “demographic management”. “The average mean age of the population of India will be 38 years by 2040, and afterwards there will be rapid ageing. We have to brace up for the demographic management in the manner that our economy is not affected,” said the Niti Aayog CEO. He also added that demographic decline as seen in South Korea and Japan could be a possibility for India.
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“On the demographic front, we can aim for raising the average life expectancy to around 84 years, which is the best in the world. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will be gradually declining to about 1.80 and the population stabilising at about 165 crores by 2047,” added the concept note.
It stated that “being a youthful nation, the working age population would be around 112 crores, making it the single largest workforce of any nation in the world”. It added that India can aim for tangible goals on some basic parameters such as literacy and health with a target of universal literacy and a very low Infant Mortality Rate (IMR).
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The concept note also stated that India should work to avoid the middle-income trap. “Studies have shown that barely a dozen middle-income countries have broken out to become develop high income countries in the last 70 years. Progressing from a middle-income to a high-income level requires sustained growth in the range of 7-10% for 20 – 30 years,” added the note. It also stated that “very few countries have managed to do this. The reasons have been well analysed and include structural, institutional, and other socioeconomic factors. As a nation we need to avoid this trap and carefully work towards breaking out of it”.
Besides, the concept note on ‘Viksit Bharat by 2047 also said: “Geo-economical landscape is shifting from west to east, and the geopolitical landscape is shifting from north to south, with Asia expected to have around 50 per cent of world’s GDP by 2047.”
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