Mayawati may hold trump card in 2024 Lok Sabha elections
By Manish Anand
New Delhi, December 31: Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati has been most reclusive politically in the recent months. Holding the third pivot in Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati may hold the trump card in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The Opposition bloc, the Indian National Developmental and Inclusive Alliance, has a stated position to force a one on one contest against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Centre. Admitting the lack of feasibility of realizing the principal aim, the Opposition block gave vent to the yearnings that the BSP should be part of the grouping.
The 2019 Lok Sabha elections had seemingly been the peak of the BJP in the national politics as the saffron outfit bagged a total of 303 seats in the lower house of parliament. Uttar Pradesh had seen a decline in the number of seats of the BJP in 2019.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had just won about 42 per cent vote share in UP but that had translated into a total of 71 parliamentary constituencies. Five years later, the BJP polled an almost 50 per cent vote share but the number of seats won by the saffron outfit declined to 62.
The difference was made on account of the BSP joining the Opposition block. Despite the campaign of the young Dalit voice Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan who was courted by the Congress, Mayawati had shown her impressive strike rate in UP as the BSP won 10 Lok Sabha seats and polled more than 19 per cent vote share.
After the meeting of the party leaders from all across the country in Lucknow, Mayawati had issued a detailed statement in which she chided the Opposition leaders who had been critical of her sitting on the fences. She said: “The Opposition leaders should not be making remarks for which they may be regretful afterwards as no one knows whose support may be needed after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.” This was very tactfully worded to position the BSP strategically in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
It meant that Mayawati is eying a position whereby she can tilt the balance in the event if either of the two makor alliances at the Centre falter in crossing the half way mark in the Lok Sabha. Furthermore, Mayawati asserted that the BSP is totally a secular party. This again is seen by political observers as Mayawati’s careful planning to work on her social engineering in UP with Dalit and Muslim combination along with the extremely backward castes.
It may be noted that Mayawati hold on to the 18 per cent Dalit vote base and the BSP has traditionally been seen by the Muslims in the western Uttar Pradesh as an alternative to the BJP. The Samajwadi Party and the Congress have seen erosion in their respective vote bases in the western UP.
But Mayawati going solo in the Lok Sabha could also be music to the ears of the BJP. The saffron outfit already building on the Ram Temple theme may fancy a repeat of the 2014 Lok Sabha election result in a triangular contest in the state.
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