Kerala 2026: BJP Struggles to Break the LDF–UDF Binary
Image credit X.com @INCIndia
With Anti-Incumbency Rising, UDF Eyes Power Shift as BJP Struggles With Demographic Math
By NIRENDRA DEV
New Delhi, February 22, 2026 — As political chatter intensifies around the Kerala Assembly Elections 2026, whispers of a symbolic “Communists Mukt Bharat” moment are gaining traction. But beneath the rhetoric lies a more complex electoral reality.
Demography and on-ground political dynamism still do not favour the BJP in Kerala. The saffron party’s impressive performance in select corporation polls showcased organizational depth, yet Assembly elections operate under a different political calculus.
Anti-Incumbency Against LDF, But No BJP Surge
The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the CPI(M), broke Kerala’s traditional pattern in 2021 by retaining power — an exception in a state accustomed to alternating between fronts. That surprise victory disrupted decades of political rhythm.
This time, however, anti-incumbency appears to be building. Yet, BJP’s path remains steep. In Kerala’s peculiar political landscape, a section of Hindu voters who may back the BJP in civic elections often consolidate behind the CPI(M) in Assembly polls to prevent the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) — a key Congress ally — from gaining influence.
That dynamic weighed heavily in 2021 and could resurface again.
Congress Screens Candidates, UDF Prepares Early
Sensing opportunity, the Congress has begun screening candidates aggressively. The All India Congress Committee (AICC) screening committee headed by veteran leader Madhusudan Mistry has started shortlisting names recommended by the Kerala unit. Insiders indicate the first list of candidates may be released before Holi.
The Congress plans to contest around 100 of the 140 Assembly seats as part of the United Democratic Front (UDF) alliance, which includes the Indian Union Muslim League. The UDF has been out of power in Kerala for a decade and is eyeing a decisive return.
Senior AICC leaders including K. C. Venugopal, Sachin Pilot, and Kanhaiya Kumar have reviewed preparedness on the ground. Karnataka minister K. J. George has also been involved in strategy discussions.
Party sources suggest that Rahul Gandhi may favour K. C. Venugopal for a central role in the campaign architecture. Recent survey data commissioned by Congress managers is reportedly being factored into ticket distribution.
BJP’s High-Profile Bet
Meanwhile, the BJP is weighing a prominent face — former DGP Jacob Thomas — for either the Thrissur or Irinjalakuda constituency.
Interestingly, sources suggest Thomas’s candidature aligns more closely with the RSS’s preferences than with sections of the BJP’s state leadership, hinting at internal balancing acts within the saffron camp.
The Congress Drought
Congress last celebrated clear state victories in Himachal Pradesh (2022), Karnataka (2023), and Telangana (2023). A Kerala win would significantly bolster the party’s southern stronghold narrative.
Elections for the 140-member Assembly are likely in March–April alongside polls in West Bengal, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. For now, Kerala’s battle appears less about “Communists Mukt Bharat” and more about whether the Congress-led UDF can convert anti-incumbency into electoral arithmetic.
The BJP, despite organizational strides, may still need a fundamentally altered political equation before Kerala turns saffron.
Follow The Raisina Hills on WhatsApp, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, and LinkedIn
About The Author
