Japan's LDP Could Lose 52 Seats After Komeito Split: Sankei

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Sankei reports that the Liberal Democratic Party risks losing up to 40% of its single-seat districts after Komeito’s exit from the ruling coalition, potentially allowing the Constitutional Democratic Party to emerge as the largest bloc.

By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

New Delhi, October 20, 2025 — According to a detailed analysis by Sankei Shimbun, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose as many as 52 seats in single-member districts in the next general election following the dissolution of its long-standing coalition with Komeito. The breakdown of electoral cooperation is expected to dramatically reshape the political landscape in Japan.

Sankei’s estimates, based on data from the previous House of Representatives election in October last year, suggest that if Komeito’s proportional representation votes were to leave the LDP candidates, the ruling party would lose around 2–4 out of every 10 seats it currently holds in single-seat constituencies. Specifically, the LDP’s 132 single-seat victories could shrink by 52, with 39 of those seats likely going to the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), making it the largest opposition force.

Komeito, backed by its powerful Soka Gakkai base, has historically directed supporters in non-contested districts to vote for LDP candidates, while the LDP urged proportional votes for Komeito — a mutually beneficial arrangement that now stands dissolved.

The Sankei analysis found that Komeito’s proportional votes averaged about 20,638 per constituency, peaking at over 36,000 in Osaka’s 6th district. Even in less populous areas such as the Hokuriku region, Komeito votes averaged around 10,000. In Okinawa’s Tarama Village, 44.5% of all proportional ballots went to Komeito, while in Nago City, one in four voters supported the party.

Among current LDP lawmakers, the most vulnerable is Daichi Yamamoto of Wakayama’s 1st district, who won by just 124 votes. Without Komeito’s estimated 30,000 local votes, Yamamoto could lose to Japan Innovation Party’s Yumi Hayashi.

Senior LDP figures like Sanae Takaichi and other cabinet veterans remain largely safe, having won by margins exceeding 70,000 votes. However, many rank-and-file LDP members face serious challenges without Komeito’s organizational backing, particularly if Komeito decides to support opposition candidates.

Sankei also notes that in districts where Komeito itself fielded candidates, the loss of equivalent LDP support could cost Komeito four key seats — including those held by party leader Tetsuo Saito and policy chief Minoru Okamoto. This possibility has led to speculation that Komeito may withdraw from some single-seat battles entirely.

Adding further uncertainty, the Japan Innovation Party, which is negotiating a possible alliance with the LDP, continues to call for cuts to proportional representation seats — a move that could threaten Komeito’s electoral survival. Both former coalition partners now face unpredictable risks ahead of Japan’s next lower house election, Sankei concluded.