Japan-China Tension Deepens after Takaichi’s Taiwan Comment
Sanae Takaichi is set to become Japan's first female Prime Minister (Image X.com)
Author Masazumi Yugari warns Beijing’s swift retaliation exposes a diplomatic blunder that may cost Japan its UN ambitions, strain ties with Taiwan, and corner Tokyo into a no-win strategic dilemma.
By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk
New Delhi, November 22, 2025 — Japan’s political and diplomatic establishment has been jolted after China abruptly suspended import procedures for Japanese seafood and beef — a direct response to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s assertion in the Diet that a “Taiwan emergency” constitutes a “state of existential crisis” for Japan.
Author and geopolitical commentator Masazumi Yugari, writing on LinkedIn, says the move was expected: “As I anticipated, the battle-hardened government of the PRC has launched an offensive.” According to him, unless Tokyo retracts Takaichi’s remarks, Beijing’s next step will likely be export restrictions on rare earth elements — commodities essential for decarbonization, electric vehicles, and advanced technology.
Yugari argues this confrontation is not merely coercion but classic geopolitical bargaining: “Whether you interpret this as a threat or a deal depends on how you look at it… such bargaining is inevitable where national interests collide.”
But he underscores one major problem — Takaichi’s remarks bypassed standard diplomatic protocols. Sensitive designations like an “existence-threatening situation” are usually vetted across ministries and coordinated with the United States before being made public. This time, Takaichi declared it as her “personal opinion” in Parliament, triggering an international fallout.
China has already seized the moment diplomatically. At the UN General Assembly, Ambassador Fu Cong declared that Japan “has absolutely no right” to seek permanent membership on the UN Security Council — effectively slamming shut a door long pursued by the late Shinzo Abe, Takaichi’s political mentor.
The ripple effects are reaching Taiwan as well. While Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) welcomes Japan’s vocal support, it views Takaichi’s rhetoric that may escalate military tensions as unhelpful and destabilizing.
Yugari warns that simply retracting the statement will not solve Japan’s dilemma. Such a retraction would publicly signal that Japan will not exercise collective self-defence to support Taiwan — effectively handing Beijing a strategic victory. It would also force Tokyo and Washington to clarify the long-deliberate ambiguity around what constitutes an “existential threat,” a cornerstone of their security posture.
According to Yugari, Beijing understands this perfectly: “This is an extremely cunning and ingenious offensive move, exploiting the weaknesses of the current Japanese administration, which is ignorant of diplomacy and security.”
For Japan, the crisis has now evolved into a high-stakes test of diplomatic competence, alliance management, and strategic messaging — one that will shape Tokyo’s role in Asia’s shifting power balance.
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