IWT: Pakistan Faces Dryland Risk in Aftermath of Pahalgam Attack

Pakistan May Face Acute Water Crisis if India Presses Ahead with Dam Building: Experts

By Manish Anand

New Delhi, April 24, 2025: Experts have warned of dire consequences for Pakistan after India announced to put the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance. While Pakistan may not face immediate impact, but experts stated that the future may be imperfect once India presses ahead with the construction of proposed dams in Jammu and Kashmir.

Pakistan may have to face grim if prospects such as one seen in 2011 when crops had failed after India filled the Baglihar dam on Chenab River to the full capacity said Lt. Gen. (Retd) KJ Singh in a post on X.

India is likely to press ahead with the construction of the proposed dams in Jammu and Kashmir. Under the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan had been eligible for 80 per cent of water of Indus, Chenab and Jhelum rivers. “But India has not been using the 20 per cent share, allowing additional 15 per cent water to go into Pakistan,” added Singh.

Experts such as Michael Kugelman and Lt. Gen. (Retd) K J Singh warned that diversion of waters from the three rivers in future could bring unforeseen challenges for Pakistan, particularly its agriculture in Punjab and Sindh.

“In 2011, there was crop failure in Pakistan after the dam on Chenab River was filled to the full capacity,” added Singh.

Kugelman in a series of posts on X said that “suspending the Indus Waters Treaty is significant because it’s unprecedented and a massive blow to diplomacy. But it’s important not to overstate the immediate water security impacts.”

“Suspending the IWT doesn’t cut off water to Pakistan. It’s not about to run dry. India could most impact river flows downstream by adding certain forms of water infrastructure, like dams,” he added.

Kugelman noted that building dams “take time to build”. “They also risk flooding Indian territory. There’s also the risk of China retaliating vs India by building dams upstream on the Brahmaputra,” he added.

But Kugelman gave prospects of future challenges for Pakistan. “|This isn’t to underplay longer term implications. If India starts using more river water for storage than IWT allows, this could impact downstream flows with implications for Pakistan agriculture among other things,” he said.

Singh stated that putting the IWT in abeyance is “symbolic yet significant and psychological”. “Point is: We have to build reservoirs to store and channels to divert water away? We are allowed full share of Sutlej, Ravi and Beas. After construction of Shahpur Kandi and repair of Hussainiwala barrage, we utilise 95 per cent water,” added Singh.

The military veteran also stated that “Pakistan has 80 per cent allocation on Indus, Chenab and Jhelum. Our share is 20 per cent; we utilise only five per cent; Built Salal and Baglihar dams on Chenab. When Baglihar reservoir was filled in 2011, Pakistan had crop failure,” added Singh.

He also listed the proposed dams -Pakkal Dul, Sawalkot, Ratle — disputed by Pakistan, besides Kishenganga. On Jhelum, Pakistan’s has been raising objection on Wullar Barrage-Tulbul project, Singh said, adding: “We can push forward.”

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About The Author

Manish Anand

Manish Anand is a senior journalist with more than two decades of hardcore reporting on beats such as Prime Minister’s Office, Parliament, BJP, Congress, Planning Commission, NITI Aayog, and scores of Union Ministries.

His past has been with The New Indian Express, The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle, and The Statesman.

For about 15 years, Manish was also a regular commentator and host for talks on AIR on foreign affairs.

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