Israel–Somaliland Recognition Sparks Horn of Africa Powder Keg

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Former UK minister Tobias Ellwood says Netanyahu’s Somaliland move lacks grand strategy, risks war in the Horn of Africa and could redraw control over critical Red Sea shipping lanes.

By TRH World Desk

New Delhi, January 1, 2026 — Former British Defence and Foreign Office minister Tobias Ellwood has delivered a stark warning over Israel’s move towards recognising Somaliland. He said that the move is dangerously timed intervention that could destabilise the Horn of Africa and ignite new fault lines across the Red Sea region.

Speaking to Al Arabiya News, Ellwood said Israel’s recognition comes “at an extremely fragile time” not just for the Middle East, but also for Eastern Africa, where unresolved conflicts, arms trafficking routes, and great-power rivalries intersect.

“Given Somaliland’s strategic location, Israel’s move has the potential to upset the balance of power,” Ellwood said, pointing to concerns raised by the African Union, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey. Regional analysts, he added, fear the decision could disrupt control over key shipping lanes that also double as conduits for weapons transfers—particularly into conflict zones like Sudan.

Ellwood framed Israel’s outreach to Somaliland as part of a broader pattern under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing that the move reflects a troubling absence of strategic thinking.

“I’m saddened by Netanyahu’s inability to think strategically,” Ellwood said. “We saw this in Gaza—overwhelming use of force that led to no political direction of travel. Just destruction for its own sake.”

That same logic, Ellwood suggested, is now being applied to the Horn of Africa. By backing Somaliland’s long-standing bid for independence, Israel may inadvertently turn the territory into a frontline.

“All this could do is potentially bring war to Somaliland,” he warned, raising the possibility that Houthis or Iran-aligned actors could target Israeli or Jewish interests within the region.

The consequences would not be localised. Ellwood stressed that the Red Sea corridor, already under pressure from Houthi attacks and Iranian manoeuvring, lacks a coherent international security framework.

“There is an absence of grand strategy for the Red Sea region,” he said, describing it as a major transit route for fighters and weapons moving between the Eastern Mediterranean, the Horn of Africa, and Sudan, which he termed a “basket case” of cascading instability.

Yet Ellwood also offered a measured note of reflection—and regret. Addressing Somaliland directly, he acknowledged Britain’s historical failure to seriously engage with its independence claims.

“I’m sorry that Britain didn’t do enough in my time to listen to your genuine requests,” he said. “But you are not in good company now with Prime Minister Netanyahu. You really are not.”

Still, Ellwood conceded that Israel’s move has thrust Somaliland back into the international spotlight for the first time in years.

“Perhaps this is the moment to take advantage of it,” he said. “The world is now looking closely at where Somaliland is, why it has pursued independence since the 1990s, and what case it is making.”

Whether that renewed attention leads to diplomatic progress—or deeper regional volatility—may define the next chapter in the Horn of Africa’s increasingly crowded geopolitical chessboard.