India’s Worry: Rare Earths as a Weapon of Modern Diplomacy
EAM S Jaishankar during the delegation level talks with his Iranian counterpart. (Image credit Video grab)
Experts warn that the next great global “debt trap” may not be financial — but mineral. Rare earths could become the weapon of diplomacy.
By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk
New Delhi, November 4, 2025 — The shadow of rare earth diplomacy is once again darkening the global stage. Following the recent Trump–Xi Summit in Busan, concerns are growing in India about the strategic implications of China’s near-monopoly over rare earth minerals — critical to clean technologies, electric vehicles, and advanced defence systems.
China currently controls around 70% of global rare earth production and over 90% of its processing technology. Its Commerce Ministry recently mandated export licensing for critical minerals, effectively giving Beijing greater leverage over global supply chains. Experts warn that China could use rare earths as a geopolitical weapon, capable of pressuring even the United States.
“For India, which imports nearly all of its rare earth requirements, the challenge is urgent. Rare earths are vital to India’s defence manufacturing — including the Tejas fighter jet — as well as its expanding electric vehicle ecosystem,” said a former diplomat. Indian automakers such as Tata, Mahindra, and Maruti rely heavily on China-sourced materials.
Recognising this vulnerability, the Government of India has launched a Critical Minerals Mission, with public sector units like Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation allocating funds for exploration. India has also partnered with Russia for joint exploration and is engaging with Afghanistan and Arctic regions to identify potential reserves.
Globally, countries such as Canada have pledged multibillion-dollar investments in critical mineral exploration, while Pakistan is courting US companies to exploit deposits in Balochistan. China, meanwhile, has already secured exploration rights in Afghanistan through deals with the Taliban government.
Analysts say the future of global power could hinge on control of these 17 metallic elements — including the lanthanides, scandium, and yttrium — collectively known as rare earths. “Without rapid progress toward self-reliance, India risks strategic dependence on China,” said another former diplomat.
He stressed that “India must therefore expand exploration in Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir, and the North-East, and accelerate research and innovation to reduce technological dependence.” The development of non-rare-earth alternatives, such as those pioneered by Sona BLW Precision Forgings, could also play a crucial role.
As the world moves toward cleaner technologies and defence modernisation, experts warn that the next great global “debt trap” may not be financial — but mineral. Rare earths could become the defining weapon of 21st-century diplomacy, added the former diplomat.
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