India’s Myanmar Calculus: Why New Delhi Is Betting on Stability

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A former Indian Army Commander has landed in Myanmar as an international observer. New Delhi shows stability-first Myanmar strategy under the Act East Policy.

By NIRENDRA DEV

New Delhi, December 28, 2025 — Former Indian Army Commander Lt Gen Arun Kumar Sahni (Retd) has landed in Myanmar as an international observer for the 2025 multiparty elections. The move is neither symbolic nor accidental. It marks a deliberate recalibration of India’s Myanmar strategy—one that privileges stability over sermons, realism over rhetoric.

As polling begins, international observer panels in Yangon include representatives from China, Russia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and India. Beijing has sent its Special Envoy Deng Xijun. Moscow is represented by State Duma Deputy Chairman Kara-ool Sholban. In this crowded geopolitical room, India’s choice of a seasoned military commander—rather than a career diplomat—stands out.

Analysts in New Delhi read this as a timely strategic move. For decades, Myanmar was underestimated in India’s foreign policy calculus, often seen through the prism of Western democratic advocacy. But the Act East Policy has changed that lens. Myanmar today is no longer a peripheral neighbour; it is a strategic hinge connecting India’s Northeast to Southeast Asia.

An informed official captures the shift succinctly: India can no longer afford to lecture Myanmar on democracy or outsource its neighbourhood policy to Western lobbies. The priority, instead, is balance. Affirming electoral processes—however imperfect—helps prevent Naypyidaw from drifting further into exclusive strategic dependence on Beijing.

Another observer is even more blunt. With India’s western and northern fronts constantly in focus, the eastern flank cannot be left unattended—especially with Bangladesh showing signs of political volatility. For New Delhi, keeping Myanmar stable is not an ideological indulgence; it is a national security imperative.

Lt Gen Sahni’s profile reinforces this message. Having commanded in deserts, the Northeast, Jammu and Kashmir, and served as GOC-in-C and Director General IT at Army Headquarters, he brings operational credibility and regional understanding. His presence reassures Myanmar’s establishment that India is engaging as a serious stakeholder, not a moral judge.

In essence, India’s Myanmar strategy is evolving into a mature neighbourhood doctrine: engage whoever holds power, keep channels open, and anchor stability in a turbulent region. In geopolitics, ideal outcomes are rare—but strategic balance is indispensable.

(This is an opinion piece. Views are personal)