India in 2026: Risks Rise as Modi and Opposition Face Stress Tests

Indian politics enters a key phase in 2026 amid possibility of far-reaching events which may shape the national outlook

By MANISH ANAND

New Delhi, January 1, 2026 — Easiest political prediction for 2026: the Congress will win Kerala. Moderate risk political bets will be for Mamata Banerjee to stay in the Writers Building in Kolkata and MK Stalin to still call the shots in Chennai. High risk prediction: the Congress will win Assam. The door may revolve in Puducherry.

The Indian politics enters into a significant spell in 2026. The year will mark the mid-term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is in the midst of a generational shift.

A post-Budget Cabinet reshuffle should be on the cards. With exceptions, those who are in the club of 70s may exit ministries. Trigger also aligns with a large number of Rajya Sabha seats, 75, heading for elections this year.

Modi and his mentor in the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) have begun weighing political options. Modi and the RSS also have to decide on successor of President Droupadi Murmu next year. This may be the year for dots to write a script.

Politics if bound with predictions may turn boring. But the Indian politics is arguably a potent addiction for millions. Politics may stay Intriguing.

Digvijaya Singh’s saffron somersault affirms that the Indian politics is dramatic. Donald Trump in the US proved that the politics also is a stage for big comebacks.

By mid-2024, the Congress was stunned. Just 25 more Lok Sabha seats, and Modi would have exited the 7, Lok Kalyan Marg! The Congress never believed that the people could have gifted another 2004 moment to the party.

But Modi made a comeback in 2025. The BJP steamrolled the Opposition in Delhi and Bihar Assembly elections. The BJP had tested new scripts in Maharashtra and Haryana elections.

The BJP will hope for a saffron summer in 2026. But smells of grounds in poll-bound states suggest that the task is uphill. A sharp Muslim consolidation in favour of the Congress is on the cards in Assam. “The Congress just needs 30 percent Hindu votes in Assam to unseat the BJP,” said a veteran political journalist covering the Northeast for over three decades.

Demography in West Bengal is a structural roadblock for the BJP’s election juggernaut. Kerala and Tamil Nadu are still just curious about the BJP. New Delhi occasionally remembers Puducherry politics.

If the Congress wins Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry, Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, may begin revealing political virtues. If Banerjee and Stalin retain their turfs, the tension quotient of the Indian political will soar.

But if the BJP wins Assam and West Bengal and also helps the AIADMK to unseat Stalin from power, India may press an accelerator towards political uniformity—in colour and thoughts.

(This is an opinion piece. Views expressed are author’s own)

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About The Author

Manish Anand

Manish Anand is a senior journalist with more than two decades of hardcore reporting on beats such as Prime Minister’s Office, Parliament, BJP, Congress, Planning Commission, NITI Aayog, and scores of Union Ministries.

His past has been with The New Indian Express, The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle, and The Statesman.

For about 15 years, Manish was also a regular commentator and host for talks on AIR on foreign affairs.

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