How Trump’s Chaos Diplomacy Hands Beijing Strategic Wins

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Sari Arho Havrén argues that Trump’s inconsistent diplomacy erodes US alliances, creating openings for Beijing to expand influence in Europe and beyond.

By TRH Global Affairs Desk

NEW DELHI, September 4, 2025 — The recent spate of summits between US President Donald Trump and world leaders has provided Beijing with new opportunities to exploit the unpredictability of Washington’s diplomacy, argues Sari Arho Havrén in an article for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

According to Havrén, the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska and subsequent meetings with European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington confirmed China’s assessment that the US remains inconsistent in its foreign policy approach. While unpredictability is not Beijing’s preferred mode of engagement, she notes that China has adopted a “wait and see” strategy, exploiting vacuums left by Washington in multilateral institutions and global rule-setting arenas.

Havrén, a Finland-based geostrategic analyst, highlights that Trump’s transactional diplomacy and frequent shifts in stance undermine trust among US allies, particularly in Europe. This erosion of confidence strengthens China’s narrative of Western decline and supports Beijing’s long-standing effort to promote European strategic autonomy.

The analysis also points to the symbolic nature of the Alaska Summit, where Trump appeared isolated without strong allied backing, a scenario that Chinese state media welcomed. This allowed Beijing to frame the US as weakened, while reinforcing its own positioning as a stable alternative.

Havrén further argues that China benefits from Trump’s alienation of allies, weakening of US agencies such as USAID, and the growing rifts in the transatlantic alliance. This dynamic enables Beijing to court European partners, bolster ties with Russia, and expand its influence in the Global South.

“Continuing war in Ukraine has so far had little consequence for China, and the US President’s unpredictability works in Beijing’s favour,” Havrén concludes, warning that such volatility could embolden China in contested regions like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Her assessment underscores Beijing’s strategy of using Trump’s inconsistency as leverage, turning unpredictability into an opportunity to accelerate the emergence of a multipolar world order.

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