Global Commodity Supercycle 2025 Amid Geopolitics and AI Boom
A representative image of a Gold coin (Image credit X.com)
StockEdge analysis says the world is only at the midpoint of a historic commodity supercycle as precious metals, industrial metals, and rare earths hit record highs—driven by inflation hedging, supply shocks, energy transition, and the AI revolution.
By S JHA
MUMBAI, September 29, 2025 — StockEdge in its latest blog has declared that commodity markets in August 2025 are in the middle of a powerful, undeniable uptrend, with nearly every metal—from gold and silver to copper, platinum, and obscure rare earths—soaring toward or above all-time highs. The analysis warns this is not the end but the midpoint of a “commodity supercycle” not seen since the world wars or the industrial revolution.
The key drivers are wide-ranging:
- Macroeconomics: Persistently high inflation and a weaker U.S. dollar are pushing investors into physical assets, especially gold.
- Geopolitics: Sanctions, trade wars, and China’s curbs on technology metals are choking supply, while the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts amplify instability.
- Energy transition & AI: Electric vehicles, renewables, and AI-driven data centres demand unprecedented volumes of copper, nickel, lithium, and rare earths like gallium and germanium.
- Supply crunch: Years of underinvestment in mining, reliance on China, and resource nationalism have left global supply chains fragile and constrained.
“Precious metals are leading the charge. Gold has risen more than 25% this year, crossing $3,500/oz before stabilizing at $3,300–$3,350 in August. Silver, both an industrial and safe-haven metal, nearly doubled from $23 to $40,” noted the StockEdge Blog. It added that “Platinum gained 40% to $1,250, while palladium slipped as EV adoption undercuts gasoline-car demand.”
Industrial metals such as copper hit $13,000/tonne in July before easing to $10,000—still far above last year—driven by electrification and weak mine supply from Chile and Peru.
“Rare earths & technology metals remain the tightest markets. China, which controls almost all global supply, has slashed exports of gallium and germanium,” stated the analysis by the Kolkata-based equity research firm. Prices have surged: gallium to $1,100/kg, germanium to $5,800/kg, and terbium to $2,000/kg. These are vital for semiconductors, EV motors, wind turbines, and AI chips.
StockEdge notes this rally is far from over, with structural demand from green energy, AI, and defence spending expected to keep metals elevated for years. “Prices that look high today,” the blog concludes, “can easily become the new normal tomorrow.”
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