Future Tense for Arvind Kejriwal in High Stakes States Bypolls 2025
An AAP rally in Ludhiana and its convenor Arvind Kejriwal! (Image X.com)
BJP, Congress, TMC Poised for Wins as AAP May Face Setback, Says Analyst
By AMIT KUMAR
NEW DELHI, June 20, 2025 – The recent bypolls for five assembly seats across Gujarat, Punjab, West Bengal, and Kerala have put the spotlight on the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its leader Arvind Kejriwal, whose political stakes are the highest.
With results due on June 23, political observers suggest a mixed outcome. They are betting on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, and Trinamool Congress (TMC) to secure victories in their respective turfs, while AAP faces hurdle in Punjab’s Ludhiana West Assembly seat.
In Gujarat, the bypolls in Visavadar (Junagadh) and Kadi (Mehsana) are tilting heavily in favour of the BJP. Visavadar, vacated after AAP MLA Bhupendra Bhayani defected to the BJP, sees the saffron party’s Kirit Patel poised to win, backed by Union Minister and Gujarat BJP chief C.R. Patil. The seat, once influenced by BJP stalwart Keshubhai Patel, has eluded the party for 18 years, but political analyst Sameer Chougaonkar predicts a BJP victory.
Kadi, a reserved seat and BJP stronghold, became vacant after the death of MLA Karsanbhai Solanki. With former Deputy CM Nitin Patel’s historical dominance, BJP’s Rajendra Chavda is expected to secure the seat comfortably. AAP’s Gopal Italia, a prominent Patidar agitation figure, is contesting Visavadar but faces an uphill battle, while Jagdish Chavda represents AAP in Kadi.
In Punjab’s Ludhiana West, where voter turnout was a modest 51.33%—13% lower than 2020—Chougankar predicts a likely AAP defeat. The seat, part of the Ludhiana Lok Sabha constituency represented by Congress’s Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, saw AAP dominate in 2022, winning eight of nine assembly segments. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls showed a shift, with Congress leading in four segments and BJP in five, including Ludhiana West, where BJP had an edge.
AAP’s Sanjeev Arora, a Rajya Sabha MP, faces Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu and BJP’s Jiwan Gupta in a tight race. Kejriwal’s promise to make Arora a cabinet minister if victorious underscores the stakes, but Chougaonkar notes, “Despite all inducements, AAP appears to be losing.”
West Bengal’s Kaliganj, with a robust 72.05% turnout, is set to be retained by TMC, Chougaonkar asserts. The bypoll, triggered by the death of TMC MLA Nasiruddin Ahamed, sees his daughter Alifa Ahmed as the frontrunner against BJP’s Ashis Ghosh and Congress-Left’s Kabil Uddin Shaikh. TMC’s strong organizational presence and historical dominance—winning 53% votes in 2021—make its victory near-certain, he added in an analysis posted on X.
In Kerala’s Nilambur, where turnout reached 73.26%, a fierce contest between Congress-led UDF’s Aryadan Shoukath and CPI(M)-led LDF’s M. Swaraj is underway, with TMC’s P.V. Anvar and BJP’s Mohan George also in the fray. The Congress holds the edge, bolstered by its Wayanad Lok Sabha win under Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, the party’s national general secretary.
Chougaonkar highlights AAP’s precarious position, noting its 2022 Gujarat performance (5 seats, 12.92% vote share) significantly dented Congress, reducing it to 17 seats. In Punjab, AAP’s 92-seat sweep in 2022 crushed Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). However, the current bypolls suggest a reversal, with Congress regaining voter support in both states. “The voter that shifted to AAP in Gujarat and Punjab is now returning to Congress,” Chougaonkar observed, predicting a potential setback for Kejriwal’s party ahead of future elections.
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