Forget World War III—'This Is the Crisis Everyone Should Fear'

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Speaking to Mario Nawfal, political analyst Ian Bremmer warns that America’s reduced security role is driving nuclear proliferation, autonomous militarization, and rising regional conflicts.

By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

New Delhi, November 16, 2025 — Political scientist Ian Bremmer warned that the retreat of U.S. security commitments is reshaping the global order in ways that may not trigger World War III—but will almost certainly spark more regional conflicts. In a conversation with Mario Nawfal, Bremmer argued that while the United States is scaling back its security umbrella in Eastern Europe, it is doubling down in Asia amid China’s rise, creating an uneven and unstable international landscape.

Bremmer dismissed the idea that the world is entering a classic Thucydides Trap. “There is no near-term likelihood of World War III,” he said, noting that even at the peak of Trump-era U.S.–China tensions, both sides quickly recognized the need for negotiation. But he stressed that Washington’s move away from its historical role as provider of global collective security has unleashed a series of destabilizing ripple effects.

“When the United States steps back, global defence expenditures go way up,” Bremmer said. He pointed to Germany and Poland, Japan and South Korea, and even Saudi Arabia’s recent security engagement with Pakistan as examples of states preparing to act more autonomously.

This shift, he warned, also heightens incentives for nuclear proliferation. “Willingness to consider nuclear weapons goes way up,” he said, noting that more governments now see self-reliance as the only reliable security guarantee.

Bremmer said that as great powers feel freer to act with impunity, regional coercion becomes more common. “Russia feels emboldened to assert its own manifest destiny in Ukraine. The U.S. acts unilaterally in Venezuela. Israel asserts dominance in its immediate backyard,” he noted.

What is emerging, Bremmer explained, is a fragmented world in which middle powers hedge and strong states test limits—without the moderating force of a globally accepted security arbiter.

“The danger is not global war,” he said. “The danger is a world of smaller fires that can turn into bonfires, with no system left to contain them.”

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