Fed Rate-Cut Odds Crash to 30% as Shutdown Halts Jobs Data

Spread love

Market confidence collapses as policymakers “fly blind,” Bitcoin holds near $90,000, and Ark Invest scoops up battered crypto equities including Bullish, Circle and Bit Mine.

By S JHA

Mumbai, November 21, 2025 — A CoinDesk report shows that expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut have plunged, with the CME FedWatch tool now pricing in just 29.8% odds of a 25-basis-point reduction. Only a month ago, traders were nearly unanimous—assigning a 98% probability to a cut.

Conviction eroded rapidly after the U.S. Labor Department confirmed it will not release October jobs data due to the unprecedented government shutdown, leaving the Fed with a crucial information gap ahead of its next policy meeting. Minutes from the October meeting further highlighted sharp divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee over whether to pause or cut rates.

Forecasting markets reflected the same uncertainty: the Polymarket contract on the December Fed decision fell to 26%.

Despite the macro turbulence, Bitcoin traded steady around $90,000, showing surprising resilience amid a broader risk-off environment.

Meanwhile, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest seized the opportunity to buy the dip, deploying $39.6 million into crypto-related equities during the market correction. According to the report, Ark purchased:

$16.9 million in shares of Bullish, parent company of CoinDesk
$15.1 million in Circle, the issuer of USDC
$7.6 million in Bit Mine Immersion Technologies, a major ether accumulator led by Tom Lee

The buying spree coincided with sharp declines across crypto stocks, in line with Ark’s strategy of accumulating “high-conviction assets” during temporary pullbacks to rebalance its innovation-focused ETFs.

On the regulatory front, Mike Seelig, US President Trump’s nominee to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), told senators he intends to push for clear, developer-friendly crypto legislation. Seelig described Bitcoin mining as “vitally important infrastructure” that should be developed within the United States.

If confirmed, Seelig could begin his term as the sole member of the five-person Commission—a scenario that would grant him unusual latitude to accelerate crypto policy, but could leave decisions open to legal challenge due to the absence of a full board.