“Even MY Couldn’t Save": How NDA Split the Muslim Vote in Bihar

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BJP’s phased Muslim outreach, and AIMIM’s vote-cutting reshaped Bihar’s electoral map.

By TRH Political Desk

Patna, November 15, 2025 — In a detailed post-poll conversation, Bihar-based political analyst Rajeshwar Jaiswal argued that the Mahagathbandhan’s collapse in the Assembly election was not merely a result of organisational weakness but a structural erosion of its traditional Muslim–Yadav (MY) base. Despite MY communities forming nearly 30% of the electorate, he noted, the alliance faced the electoral humiliation.

Jaiswal pointed to Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign style, which he described as lacking seriousness. “Yadav spent much of the campaign moving around in T-shirts and even performing breakdance in some places,” he said, adding that optics without strategy alienated older voters and left the alliance vulnerable to the NDA’s methodical ground outreach.

Muslim Vote Clearly Fragmented, Says Analyst

According to Jaiswal, the Muslim vote—long considered a consolidated bloc—fractured sharply this election. He cited his conversations with Muslim men and elderly women in his locality, many of whom expressed appreciation for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. “They said one thing openly: no riots happened during Nitish’s tenure. That matters,” he said.

A key factor, he added, was the ₹10,000 direct transfer provided to women under a JD(U) scheme before the Model Code of Conduct. “Muslim women, especially from poorer households, definitely voted for Nitish. Ten thousand rupees is a big amount. In many homes, women voted NDA even when husbands wanted to vote elsewhere—it caused fights,” he said.

Jaiswal said this cross-religious, cross-caste gendered shift was visible: “Whether Hindu or Muslim, women responded to the money in hand and promises of ₹2 lakh in the next phase.”

How BJP Quietly Built Influence Among Muslims

Jaiswal argued that the BJP’s incremental outreach to Muslims was underestimated. He cited fieldwork by units associated with the Rashtriya Muslim Manch, led by senior RSS functionary Indresh Kumar. “Their work is gradual, structured and phased—not event-based. They map local clusters, then expand. The results are now visible,” he said.

He claimed that groups like Pasmandas, active in his region, ensured that “a committed set of Muslim voters” backed the NDA. “The BJP works in a routine, step-by-step manner. Nothing is sudden.”

Owaisi’s AIMIM: A Silent But Significant Factor

On Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM won five seats in Seemanchal—replicating its 2020 performance—Jaiswal said the impact extended beyond those constituencies. “Owaisi appeals to the educated Muslim elite. When he contests, he pulls 5,000–6,000 votes even outside his strongholds,” he said. “Those votes would otherwise go to the MGB.”

He argued that AIMIM’s presence influenced adjacent constituencies too, contributing to the fragmentation of the Muslim vote.

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