Endgame Atlantic Alliance? Trump’s Doctrine Shakes the West

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As Trump rewrites US strategy, Gordon G. Chang warns the Atlantic Alliance faces its most dangerous test since World War II

By TRH Foreign Affairs Desk

New Delhi, January 16, 2026 — Is this the end of the Atlantic Alliance? The question, once unthinkable, now dominates transatlantic discourse as US President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy redraws the map of Western priorities.

“A decade ago, U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt delivered an uncomfortable truth to Washington: Europe’s gravest threat was not Russia, but internal decay driven by uncontrolled migration, economic stagnation, and eroding civilizational confidence,” wrote Gordon G. Ching in Pacific Research Institute.

Today, he added, Trump’s strategy echoes that warning almost word for word, cautioning that Europe risks “civilizational erasure” within a generation.

US Vice President JD Vance’s blunt address at the Munich Security Conference accelerated the rupture, Chong argued. “By questioning Europe’s commitment to free speech, democratic accountability, and border control, Vance openly challenged whether current European values were still worth defending,” he added.

The reaction was seismic. “Former French prime minister Dominique de Villepin declared that America could no longer be considered Europe’s ally, while Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for strategic independence from Washington, declaring the Pax Americana effectively over,” Chong added.

To many Europeans, this sounded like abandonment. To many Americans, it sounded overdue.

For decades, US presidents pleaded with NATO allies to invest seriously in their own defence. The results were minimal. “Trump, faced with two Russian invasions of Ukraine and persistent European complacency, opted for leverage instead of reassurance. As Holt put it, the new strategy reads less like guidance and more like a divorce filing,” he added.

Yet the Atlantic Alliance is not obsolete—it is endangered. “Europe remains geopolitically central, not marginal. Ukraine sits at the heart of Eurasia, a region long identified by strategists from Halford Mackinder to Zbigniew Brzezinski as decisive to global power,” Chong stressed. He added that “Beijing understands this clearly.” China has made no secret of its preference that Russia not lose in Ukraine, knowing that a weakened Europe frees American attention for East Asia.

“Trump’s strategy implicitly prioritizes Asia over Europe. That may be tactically tempting, but it is strategically flawed,” argued Chong. He stressed that “credibility lost in the Atlantic will not be preserved in the Pacific. Alliances are force multipliers, not charitable projects.”

The Atlantic Alliance, he further stated, does not need to be discarded—it needs to be rebuilt. “History offers a stark warning. The last time America turned away from Europe, the world descended into catastrophe,” Chong warned. Reform, not retreat, remains the only responsible choice, he added.