CPEC: Pakistan Slips in Debt Trap as China’s Economic Colony
General's Jottings by Lt Gen KJ Singh (Image credit The Browser)
China-Made Gwadar Port Fuels Baluchistan Nationalism
By Lt Gen K J Singh
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was first considered in 2003 and offered to Pervez Musharraf but was not progressed. Nawaz Sharif in 2013 announced launching of CPEC, describing it as game-changer, the project got traction in 2015 with signing of MOUs.
Described as geo-economic oriented project, it is manifestation of China-Pakistan collusive linkages and is another addition to geostrategic glue after gifting of Shakasgam Valley. Project traverses through contested PoK and GB (Gilgit-Baltistan), on which India has de-jure territorial claim.
CPEC encompasses critical strategic spaces like Shaksgam Valley, Khanjureb pass located in confluence of multiple civilizations. Project is situated in highly volatile KPK and Baluchistan affected by insurgencies and terrorism. The region is loosely administered with traditional codes and has large number of warlords or self-styled Emirs.
Gwadar on Makran coast is the pivot with warm water connectivity and potential to reduce dependencies on sea lanes transiting through Malacca strait. Ambitious project includes power generation, road connectivity, port development and FTZs and SEZs as the focus areas.
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Financial outlay is pegged at $46 billion with possibility of growing to $62 billion and more. Currently, however it is stalled due to rethink and review of projects. Project in more than seven years has missed deadlines and has made tardy progress.
Major gain has been addition of approximately 6 GW power generation out of projected 12-15 GW, making approximately 45% accretion. The utilisation and distribution of this power is tardy as CPEC has only one minor project on up-gradation of power distribution grid.
Most power projects are coal based with GHG and have problems of availability of coal. Three hydel projects are still under construction.
There have been improvements in 3218 km long road corridor but up-gradation to all weather capability at Khnanjureb pass is still underway. While ongoing Orange Line Metro project bundled as early harvest has been commissioned but other project like ML-1 are pending on funding challenges.
Gwadar has been notionally activated and lacks infrastructure like captive power plant, water supply and communications. Overall, it is underutilized and yet to find traction.
Security threat to Chinese workforce and repeated terrorist attacks has created major concerns. Pakistan has added two light Divisions equipped with sophisticated equipment and other dual use capabilities in the garb of CPEC.
Pakistan is caught in debt trap and economic crisis leading to spectre of Hambantota type of situation and even talk of economic colonisation. Project has potential to escalate regional tension and added to strategic challenges for India.
India needs to be prepared to face long term threat posed by China and Pakistan in collusive mode.
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China is increasing its presence and influence in Indian Ocean using bases like Djibouti, in conjunction with Gwadar, Hambantota and other bases as part of its Maritime Silk Road (erstwhile string of pearls) and two oceans strategy.
Chinese attempt to secure role in Chabahar after launching Gwadar as also Kyaukphyu in Myanmar in relation to Indian venture of Sittwe, is indicative of desire to stymie Indian connectivity initiatives.
It doesn’t fit into propaganda narrative of shared prosperity and regional co-operation. On the contrary, it is more appropriate to read it in the context of Chinese maxim, “One mountain cannot take two tigers”.
China though a late entrant is utilising its fiscal clout and port development leverages to set up forums to counter already established ones. Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific are becoming increasingly contested spaces with maritime strategic power games.
Chinese threat must be viewed in collusive format with Pakistan and can manifest in various domains-land, air, cyber besides maritime. CPEC could contribute to this as a flank of application, launch pad and for logistics.
India is looking at holistic response based on alternate connectivity, increased co-operation, tie-ups for access to more bases and strategic up gradation. India has an indifferent record in its regional connectivity projects and needs to review its project management strategy.
INSTC has the potential to negate salience of CPEC and bypass Gwadar maritime choke being attempted by China. Alliances like QUAD have only limited utility as partners are reluctant to physically apply forces. India may have to face its threats largely on its own.
(Excerpted from General’s Jottings: National Security, Conflicts & Strategies by Lt Gen KJ Singh, published by The Browser)
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