Congress may have to take deep haircut for INDIA block
Congress meeting with Chhattisgarh leaders
By Manish Anand
New Delhi, September 11: The Mumbai meeting of the Opposition alliance – Indian National developmental Inclusive Alliance – committed to the seat adjustment pact “as far as possible”. By forming a 14-member coordination committee, the alliance has shown forward movement. But the group may force a deep hair cut on the Congress during the seat adjustment talks.
The leaders of the constituents of the INDIA alliance have spoken of a tactical electoral battle against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This objective of the tactical battle may be incumbent on the Congress, the only big national party in the group, to show a large heart to the regional outfits.
There are precedents for the Congress to be ready to take the deep hair cut in the seat negotiations with the alliance partner in the Opposition grouping. It was the Congress which had helped the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to first form the government in Delhi in 2013 with the sole objective to keep the BJP out of power. That was a big giveaway by the Congress to a fledgling political outfit by civil society activists who had taken piggyback ride on the Anna Hazare movement against corruption in public life.
Delhi Congress leaders still lament the decision of the party high command that the political turf was given away to the AAP with the grand old party’s pursuit to keep the BJP out of power. The Congress is without a single MLA in the Delhi Assembly now. The Congress’ vote share in Delhi has also bene reduced to single digit (4.26 per cent in the 2020 Assembly election).
The INDIA block may work out the criteria for the seat adjustment and the votes polled in the last election could be one of the yardsticks for the constituents to work out the arrangement. If the vote share gets the consideration, the AAP may block the claims of the Congress for even one Lok Sabha seat in Delhi. It’s noteworthy to mention that the AAP conveyor Arvind Kejriwal has already said that his party would contest all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi.
The Mumbai meeting of the Opposition alliance was preceded by a confidential rendezvous between former Congress president Rahul Gandhi and the Trinamool Congress Lok Sabha MP Abhishek Banerjee. This has already alarmed the state unit of the Congress in West Bengal. If the “sitting-getting and number 2 in the last poll” principle applies, the Congress may be staring at staking claims on not more five parliamentary constituencies in West Bengal. Even that number may look ambitious. In such a scenario, either the Congress will step back from the political turf of West Bengal or force friendly contest on a respectable number of seats.
The saving grace for the Congress could be to persuade the TMC to not contest elections in Assam and the Northeastern states as part of the objective to force a ‘One on One Contest against the BJP”. But it may be noted that the TMC has a national ambition. The Mamata Banerjee-led outfit has been contesting elections in Odisha, Assam, Tripura, Jharkhand, Goa, and other states as part of the strategy to enhance the national footprints of the TMC, which can make the incumbent chief minister a potent candidate for the prime ministerial post. In this backdrop, the Congress may have limited prospects to gain from the negotiations with the TMC.
The Congress will also have to cede space in Maharashtra to the allies such as the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena of Uddhav Thackeray. It may be recalled that the next Lok Sabha elections would be a first for the Congress in which the party will be in the electoral fray with seat adjustment in Maharashtra.
The Congress on the other hand has nothing to gain from the INDIA constituents in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka where the status quo situation may prevail for the party and brace for three or even four-way contests. The Congress may also not be hopeful of persuading the Samajwadi Party to agree to spare a respectable number of Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 80 parliamentary constituencies. With over 18 per cent vote shares, the Congress had bagged 21 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. The journey for the party since then has been on the downhills.
Besides, the Congress will have to ward off stiff challenge by the AAP in the party’s catchment areas. It’s now well noted that the AAP is gaining at the expense of the Congress. The AAP forayed into the Gujarat Assembly elections to damage the Congress. The national ambition of the AAP is incumbent on contesting a large number of seats, preferably, in the regions where the Congress and the BJP have been locked in two-way electoral battle.
Thus, the writing on the wall appears clear that the Congress may have to take deep hair cut in the seat adjustment with the INDIA. Else, the seat adjustment resolve of the alliance may struggle to gain momentum.
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